Each week, including this week's 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge: Field | Rankings | Betting Odds | One and Done | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database
JOIN FOREBUCKS: Access a winning PGA Tour model, unique tools and in-depth analysis for just $40/year!
GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-14 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Max Homa - 2 - T-3 Masters, T-8 Wells Fargo Championship
- Billy Horschel - 2 - WIN Corales Puntacana, T-8 PGA Championship
- Sungjae Im - 2 - T-12 RBC Heritage, 4th Wells Fargo Championship
- Robert MacIntyre - 2 - T-13 Myrtle Beach Classic, T-8 PGA Championship
- Collin Morikawa - 2 - T-9 RBC Heritage, T-4 PGA Championship
- Scottie Scheffler - 2 - WIN RBC Heritage, T-8 PGA Championship
- Greyson Sigg - 2 - T-9 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Myrtle Beach Classic
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-6 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Sepp Straka - 2 - T-5 RBC Heritage, T-8 Wells Fargo Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in the last five years, at any venue.
Here are those players:
- Sam Burns - 2
- Tony Finau - 2
- Emiliano Grillo - 2
- Charley Hoffman - 2
- Sungjae Im - 2
- Collin Morikawa - 2
- Andrew Putnam - 2
- Justin Rose - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 2
- Jordan Spieth - 4
- Brendon Todd - 2
- Gary Woodland - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Charles Schwab Challenge.
The breakdown:
Putting: 32%
Tee to Green: 68%
Off the Tee: 16%
Approach: 38%
Around the Green: 14%
Some fits includes:
Emiliano Grillo
Ben Griffin
Lee Hodges
Jordan Spieth
Keith Mitchell
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
