Each week, including this week's 2024 The American Express, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 The American Express history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Akshay Bhatia - 2 - T-10 WWT Championship, T-14 The Sentry
- Eric Cole - 3 - T-3 RSM Classic, T-14 The Sentry, T-13 Sony Open
- Ryan Moore - 2 - T-5 Bermuda Championship, T-8 RSM Classic
- Ryan Palmer - 2 - T-5 WWT Championship, T-8 Bermuda Championship
- Taylor Pendrith - 3 - T-15 WWT Championship, T-8 Bermuda Championship, T-10 Sony Open
- JT Poston - 2 - T-10 WWT Championship, T-4 RSM Classic
- Camilo Villegas - 2 - T-2 WWT Championship, WIN Bermuda Championship
- Vince Whaley - 2 - T-8 Bermuda Championship, T-13 RSM Classic
- Carl Yuan - 2 - T-4 Bermuda Championship, T-4 Sony Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years, keeping in mind that this is a new venue we've not seen.
Here are those players:
- Sam Burns - 2
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Tony Finau - 2
- Tom Hoge - 2
- Sungjae Im - 4
- Si Woo Kim - 2
- JT Poston - 2
- Andrew Putnam - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 2
- Roger Sloan - 2
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
This week, we only have one course of data (the host PGA West Stadium) from the three courses played. It's impossible to determine any kind of fit based on two rounds of data for one course, so let's just leave well enough alone.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
This week's model
Check out the 2024 The American Express generic model, as well as our NEW short-term model which is available to GNN members.
My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.
We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!
We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!
Good luck this week!