Each week, including this week's 2024 PGA Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge: Field | Rankings | Betting Odds | One and Done | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 PGA Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Ludvig Aberg - 2- 2nd Masters, T-10 RBC Heritage
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2 - T-3 Masters, T-13 Wells Fargo Championship
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-14 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Russell Henley - 2 - T-12 RBC Heritage, T-10 Wells Fargo Championship
- Max Homa - 2 - T-3 Masters, T-8 Wells Fargo Championship
- Rory McIlroy - 2 - WIN Zurich Classic (yeah, a team event), WIN Wells Fargo Championship
- Collin Morikawa - 2 - T-3 Masters, T-9 RBC Heritage
- Taylor Pendrith - 3 - T-11 Corales Puntacana, WIN Byron Nelson, T-10 Wells Fargo Championship
- Xander Schauffele - 2 - T-8 Masters, 2nd Wells Fargo Championship
- Scottie Scheffler - 2 - WIN Masters, WIN RBC Heritage
- Adam Schenk - 3 - T-5 Texas Open, T-12 Masters, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-6 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the PGA Championship in the last five years, at any venue.
Here are those players:
- Patrick Cantlay - 2
- Tony Finau - 2
- Tyrrell Hatton - 2
- Dustin Johnson - 2
- Brooks Koepka - 3
- Shane Lowry - 3
- Rory McIlroy - 3
- Collin Morikawa - 2
- Jon Rahm - 2
- Justin Rose - 3
- Xander Schauffele - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 3
- Cam Smith - 2
- Will Zalatoris - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's PGA Championship. However, with a major that moves around, and this venue only seeing action every 10 years, it's not a viable option.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
