2024 John Deere Classic betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses
CMC Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting

2024 John Deere Classic betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses

A photo of golfer Sepp Straka
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Each week, including this week's 2024 John Deere Classic, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.

However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.

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2024 John Deere Classic history and current PGA Tour finish trends

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.

  • Nick Dunlap - 2 - T-12 Memorial, T-10 Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • Sungjae Im - 2 - T-8 Memorial, T-3 Travelers Championship
  • Aaron Rai - 2 - T-14 RBC Canadian Open, T-2 Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • Davis Thompson - 2 - T-9 US Open, T-2 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the John Deere Classic in the last five years.

Here are those players:

Course Fits

A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's John Deere Classic.

Here's our breakout:

Putting: 32%
Tee to Green: 68%
Off the Tee: 19%
Approach: 36%
Around The Green: 15%

Some fits include:

Dylan Frittelli
Jordan Spieth
Ben Griffin
Russell Knox
Martin Laird
Eric Cole
Keith Mitchell
Kevin Yu

Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.

I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.

Also, find this week's model right here.

Good luck this week!

About the author

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is currently a +2.6 USGA handicap, and he has covered dozens of major championships and professional golf tournaments. He likes writing about golf and making it more accessible by answering the complex questions fans have about the pro game or who want to understand how to play golf better.

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