Each week, including this week's 2024 Wells Fargo Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 Wells Fargo Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Rafael Campos - 2 - T-14 Corales Puntacana, T-9 Byron Nelson
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2 - T-7 Valero Texas Open, T-3 Masters
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-14 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Russell Henley - 2 - T-4 Valero Texas Open, T-12 Byron Nelson
- Chan Kim - 2 - T-14 Valero Texas Open, T-6 Corales Puntacana
- S.H. Kim - 2 - T-14 Valero Texas Open, T-4 Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest - 2 - T-10 Valero Texas Open, T-9 Wells Fargo
- Collin Morikawa - 2 - T-3 Masters, T-9 RBC Heritage
- Alex Noren - 2 - T-14 Valero Texas Open, 3rd Byron Nelson
- Taylor Pendrith - 2 - T-11 Corales Puntacana, WIN Byron Nelson
- Adam Schenk - 3 - T-5 Texas Open, T-12 Masters, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-6 Corales Puntacana, T-13 Byron Nelson
- Kevin Tway - 2 - T-3 Corales Puntacana, T-9 Byron Nelson
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Wells Fargo Championship in the last five years (when it's been at Quail Hollow).
Here are those players:
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2
- Rickie Fowler - 2
- Max Homa - 2
- Rickie Fowler - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 2
- Keith Mitchell - 2
- Gary Woodland - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Wells Fargo Championship.
Fits include:
Jason Day
Sahith Theegala
Alex Noren
Webb Simpson
Adam Hadwin
Sam Burns
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
Good luck this week!
