Each week, including this week's 2024 RBC Heritage and Corales Puntacana Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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GNN Members-Only Tools
- PGA Tour results database
- Cheat Sheet
- PGA Tour top-15 trends
- Short-term model
- Quality Strokes Gained
- Strokes gained by round
- Course fit: Player vs. course
- Course fit: Course comparison
- SG:T2G trends
- SG:T2G variance
- Strokes gained by grass
- Strokes gained by course length
- Strokes gained by par
2024 RBC Heritage history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the RBC Heritage and Corales Puntacana Championship.
- Ludvig Aberg - 3 - T-8 Players, T-14 Texas Open, 2nd Masters
- Akshay Bhatia - 2 - T-11 Houston Open, WIN Texas Open
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 2 - T-5 Players, T-10 Texas Open
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2 - T-7 Texas Open, T-3 Masters
- Billy Horschel - 2 - T-12 Valspar Championship, T-7 Houston Open
- Hideki Matsuyama - 2 - T-6 The Players, T-7 Texas Open
- Taylor Moore - 2 - T-12 Valspar Championship, 2nd Houston Open
- Alex Noren - 2 - T-11 Houston Open, T-14 Texas Open
- Xander Schauffele - 3 - T-2 The Players, T-5 Valspar Championship, T-8 Masters
- Scottie Scheffler - 3 - WIN The Players, 2nd Houston Open, WIN Masters
- Adam Schenk - 2 - T-5 Texas Open, T-12 Masters
- Cameron Young - 2- 2nd Valspar Championship, T-9 Masters
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the RBC Heritage in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Sam Burns - 2
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Corey Conners - 2
- Cam Davis - 2
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 3
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2
- Emiliano Grillo - 2
- Brian Harman - 2
- Sungjae Im - 2
- Shane Lowry - 3
- JT Poston - 3
- Webb Simpson - 2
- Jordan Spieth - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's RBC Heritage.
Fits include:
Matt Fitzpatrick
Jordan Spieth
Patrick Cantlay
Shane Lowry
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Also, find this week's model right here.
2024 Corales Puntacana Championship history
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years.
Here are those players for the Corales Puntacana Championship:
- Kramer Hickok - 2
- Nate Lashley - 2
- Ben Martin - 3
- Alex Smalley - 2
Course Fits
We don't get strokes-gained data at the Corales Puntacana Championship, so there are no fits here.
Good luck this week!
