2024 The Sentry betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting

2024 The Sentry betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses

A photo of golfer Ludvig Aberg

Each week, including this week's 2024 The Sentry, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.

However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.

2024 The Sentry: Tournament Model | Field | Rankings | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Betting Odds | One and Done | Course Breakdown | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database

2024 The Sentry history and current PGA Tour finish trends

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Ludvig Aberg - 3 - T-13 Shriners Open, T-10 WWT Championship, WIN The RSM Classic
  • Eric Cole - 3 - T-3 Shriners Open, 2nd Zozo Championship, T-3 The RSM Classic
  • Camilo Villegas - 2 - T-2 WWT Championship, WIN Bermuda Championship

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years, keeping in mind that this is a new venue we've not seen.

Here are those players:

Course Fits

A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.

This week, we only have one course of data (the host Seaside Course). We don't get data for the Plantation Course. That's OK, though, because three rounds are played on the host course for those who make the cut.

Here's the breakdown on the Seaside:

Putting: 31%
Tee to Green: 69%
Off the Tee: 20%
Approach: 36%
Around the Green: 13%

Fits include:

Adam Hadwin
Jordan Spieth
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns
Davis Riley
Tyrrell Hatton
Cam Davis

Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.

I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.

This week's model

Check out the 2024 The Sentry generic model, as well as our NEW short-term model which is available to GNN members.

My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.

We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!

We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!

Good luck this week!

About the author

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is a scratch golfer...sometimes.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

Ryan occasionally links to merchants of his choosing, and GNN may earn a commission from sales generated by those links. See more in GNN's affiliate disclosure.