2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses

A photo of golfer Scottie Scheffler AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 27: Scottie Scheffler of the United States plays his shot from the first tee in his finals match against Kevin Kisner of the United States on the final day of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 27, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)


Each week, including this week's 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.

However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open: Field | Tournament Model | Rankings | Betting Odds and First Looks | Course History & Current Form | DFS Picks | First-Round Leader Picks | One and Done | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | PGA Tour Event History | Recent Form | Finish Database | Discord

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Tony Finau - 2 - T-7 TOC, T-9 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Max Homa - 2 - T-3 TOC, WIN Farmers Insurance Open
  • Sungjae Im - 2 - T-13 TOC, T-4 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Tom Kim - 2 - T-5 TOC, T-6 AmEx
  • Chris Kirk - 2 - 3rd Sony Open, T-3 AmEx
  • Taylor Montgomery - 2 - T-12 Sony Open, T-5 AmEx
  • Taylor Moore - 2 - T-11 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Pebble Beach
  • Collin Morikawa - 2 - 2nd TOC, T-3 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Jon Rahm - 3 - WIN TOC, WIN AmEx, T-7 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Xander Schauffele - 2 - T-3 AmEx, T-13 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Scottie Scheffler - 2 - T-7 TOC, T-11 AmEx
  • JJ Spaun - 2 - T-5 TOC, T-12 Sony Open

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years.

  • Rickie Fowler - 2
  • James Hahn - 2
  • Max Homa - 2
  • Billy Horschel - 2
  • Chris Kirk - 2
  • Matt Kuchar - 2
  • Martin Laird - 2
  • Hideki Matsuyama - 2
  • Jon Rahm - 5
  • Xander Schauffele - 3
  • Scottie Scheffler - 2
  • Justin Thomas - 4
  • Gary Woodland - 2

Course Fits

A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.

This week's breakout:

Putting: 32%
Tee to Green: 68%
Off the Tee: 23%
Approach: 32%
Around the Green: 13%

Some fits include:

Sam Burns
Taylor Pendrith
Patrick Cantlay
Matt Fitzpatrick
Davis Riley

Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field at TPC Scottsdale.

I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour. You might be surprised to see which courses seem to relate to TPC Scottsdale.

This week's model

Check out the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open model, which is available to GNN members.

My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.

We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!

We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!

Good luck this week!

About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is a scratch golfer...sometimes.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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