Each week, including this week's 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 2.985 | 0 | 340 |
| 2 | McIlroy, Rory | 2.284 | 0 | 1000 |
| 3 | Fleetwood, Tommy | 1.81 | 0 | 1900 |
| 4 | Smotherman, Austin | 1.713 | 0 | 15500 |
| 5 | Henley, Russell | 1.33 | 0 | 2900 |
| 6 | Schauffele, Xander | 1.32 | 0 | 2500 |
| 7 | McCarty, Matt | 1.144 | 0 | 10500 |
| 8 | Morikawa, Collin | 1.085 | 0 | 3100 |
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| 9 | Cantlay, Patrick | 1.069 | 0 | 4000 |
| 10 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 1.059 | 0 | 3000 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Field | Tournament Model | Podcast | Rankings | Betting Odds and First Looks | One and Done | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Course Breakdown | Cheat Sheet | Tournament History | Recent Form | Finish Database
2026 Puerto Rico Open: Field | Tournament Model | Podcast | Rankings | Betting Odds and First Looks | One and Done | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Course Breakdown | Cheat Sheet | Tournament History | Recent Form | Finish Database
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Bhatia, Akshay - 2 - T-3 WM Phoenix Open, T-6 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Bridgeman, Jacob - 2 - T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach, WIN Genesis Invitational
- Coody, Pierceson - 2 - T-2 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 WM Phoenix Open
- Dahmen, Joel - 2 - T-7 Farmers Insurance Open, T-9 Cognizant Classic
- Echavarria, Nico - 2 - T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach, WIN Cognizant Classic
- Fitzpatrick, Matt - 2 - T-9 WM Phoenix Open, T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Fleetwood, Tommy - 2 - 4th AT&T Pebble Beach, T-7 Genesis Invitational
- Hisatsune, Ryo - 3 - T-2 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 WM Phoenix Open, T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Hojgaard, Nicolai - 2 - T-3 WM Phoenix Open, T-6 Cognizant Classic
- Kim, Si Woo - 2 - T-2 Farmers Insurance Open, 3rd WM Phoenix Open
- Knapp, Jake - 4 - T-5 Farmers Insurance Open, T-8 WM Phoenix Open, T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-6 Genesis Invitational
- Lee, Min Woo - 2 - T-2 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-12 Genesis Invitational
- Lowry, Shane - 2 - T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-2 Cognizant Classic
- Matsuyama, Hideki - 3 - T-11 Farmers Insurance Open, P-2 WM Phoenix Open, T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach
- McIlroy, Rory - 2 - T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach, 2nd Genesis Invitational
- McNealy, Maverick - 2 - T-10 Farmers Insurance Open, T-13 WM Phoenix Open
- Mitchell, Keith - 2 - T-11 Farmers Insurance Open, T-6 Cognizant Classic
- Morikawa, Collin - 2 - WIN AT&T Pebble Beach, T-7 Genesis Invitational
- Scheffler, Scottie - 3 - WIN The American Express, T-3 WM Phoenix Open, T-4 AT&T Pebble Beach
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Keegan Bradley - 4
- Corey Conners - 3
- Jason Day - 2
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 2
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2
- Russell Henley - 3
- Viktor Hovland - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 4
- Scottie Scheffler - 4
- Jordan Spieth - 2
- Sahith Theegala - 2
- Cameron Young - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Here's our breakdown:
Putting: 26%
Tee to Green: 74%
Off the Tee: 20%
Approach: 35%
Around the Green: 19%
Some fits include:
Keegan Bradley
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Tom Hoge
Adam Scott
Chris Gotterup
Russell Henley
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
