Each week, including this week's 2025 Valspar Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2025 Valspar Championship rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schauffele, Xander | 1.417 | 10500 | 2000 |
| 2 | Fleetwood, Tommy | 1.344 | 10300 | 1400 |
| 3 | Clanton, Luke | 1.193 | 8500 | 5000 |
| 4 | Lowry, Shane | 1.158 | 9400 | 2500 |
| 5 | Thomas, Justin | 0.988 | 10800 | 1400 |
| 6 | Burns, Sam | 0.961 | 9800 | 2500 |
| 7 | Mitchell, Keith | 0.931 | 7800 | 6000 |
| 8 | Scott, Adam | 0.87 | 8300 | 5000 |
| 9 | Straka, Sepp | 0.85 | 10000 | 2000 |
| 10 | Glover, Lucas | 0.816 | 8800 | 3500 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2025 Valspar Championship: Discord | Tournament Model | Field | Rankings | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Betting Odds | One and Done | Course Breakdown | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database
2025 Valspar Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Jacob Bridgeman - 2 - 2nd Cognizant Classic, T-15 API
- Corey Conners - 2 - 3rd API, T-6 The Players
- Tommy Fleetwood - 3 - T-5 Genesis Invitational, T-11 API, T-14 The Players
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-4 Mexico Open, T-4 Cognizant Classic
- Russell Henley - 2 - T-5 Pebble Beach, WIN API
- Michael Kim - 5 - 2nd Phoenix Open, T-13 Genesis Invitational, T-13 Mexico Open, T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-4 API
- Jake Knapp - 2 - T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-12 The Players
- Shane Lowry - 2 - T-11 Cognizant Classic, T-7 API
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-10 Mexico Open, T-14 The Players
- Jordan Spieth - 2 - T-4 Phoenix Open, T-9 Cognizant Classic
- Sepp Straka - 3 - T-15 Phoenix Open, T-11 Cognizant Classic, T-5 API
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Valspar Championship in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Sam Burns - 3
- Adam Hadwin - 3
- Xander Schauffele - 2
- Justin Thomas - 3
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Valspar Championship.
Here's the breakdown:
Putting: 38%
Tee to Green: 62%
Off the Tee: 18%
Approach: 28%
Around the Green: 14%
Potential fits include:
Sam Burns
JT Poston
Sam Stevens
Bud Cauley
Andrew Novak
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
