Each week, including this week's 2026 Valero Texas Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2026 Valero Texas Open rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henley, Russell | 1.432 | 9800 | 1800 |
| 2 | Fleetwood, Tommy | 1.42 | 10500 | 1600 |
| 3 | Morikawa, Collin | 1.232 | 9400 | 2000 |
| 4 | Noren, Alex | 1.103 | 8700 | 3500 |
| 5 | Spieth, Jordan | 1.052 | 9500 | 2000 |
| 6 | Aberg, Ludvig | 1.028 | 10100 | 1600 |
| 7 | Yellamaraju, Sudarshan | 0.994 | 8100 | 5000 |
| 8 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 0.988 | 9300 | 2500 |
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| 9 | MacIntyre, Robert | 0.949 | 9900 | 2000 |
| 10 | McNealy, Maverick | 0.827 | 9000 | 2500 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2026 Valero Texas Open: Field | Tournament Model | Podcast | Rankings | Betting Odds and First Looks | One and Done | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Course Breakdown | Cheat Sheet | Tournament History | Recent Form | Finish Database
2026 Valero Texas Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Aberg, Ludvig - 2 - T-3 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-5 The Players
- Castillo, Ricky - 2 - T-5 Cognizant Classic, WIN Puerto Rico Open
- Ewart, A.J. - 2 - T-13 Cognizant Classic, T-11 Valspar Championship
- Henley, Russell - 2 - T-6 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-13 The Players
- Mitchell, Keith - 2 - T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-14 Houston Open
- Nyholm, Pontus - 2 - T-13 Cognizant Classic, T-14 Houston Open
- Smotherman, Austin - 2 - T-2 Cognizant Classic, T-13 The Players
- Spieth, Jordan - 2 - T-11 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-11 Valspar Championship
- Straka, Sepp - 2 - T-13 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-8 The Players
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Valero Texas Open in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Hoge, Tom - 2
- Kirk, Chris - 2
- Kim, S.H. - 2
- Kuchar, Matt - 3
- Matsuyama, Hideki - 2
- Mitchell, Keith - 2
- Noren, Alex - 2
- Novak, Andrew - 2
- Olesen, Thorbjorn - 2
- Spieth, Jordan - 3
- Todd, Brendon - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Valero Texas Open.
Here's our breakdown:
Putting: 30%
Tee to Green: 70%
Off the Tee: 18%
Approach: 36%
Around the Green: 16%
Some fits include:
Tommy Fleetwood
Keith Mitchell
Lee Hodges
Rickie Fowler
Jordan Spieth
Mac Meissner
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
