2021 Wells Fargo Championship model and fantasy golf rankings

Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it's been a tremendous success. Here's a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

• Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger - No. 21
• Wells Fargo Championship: Webb Simpson - No. 7
• Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 10
• Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 2
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa - No. 11
• the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm - No. 6
• WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas - No. 6
• PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 13
• The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - No. 20
• BMW Championship: Jon Rahm - No. 2
• US Open: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 9
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia - No. 40
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak - No. 17
• Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay - No. 9
• The Wells Fargo Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 7
• Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland - No. 5
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English - No. 13
• Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na - No. 33
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed - No. 8
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka - No. 10
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger - No. 1
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa - No. 30
• WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 17
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 3
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas - No. 3
• Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship: Joel Dahmen - No. 22
• Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth - No. 9
• Masters: Hideki Matsuyama - No. 16
• RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink - No. 75
• Valspar Championship: Sam Burns - No. 77

Let me walk you through the rubric's tenets and show off this week's results.

How the rubric works

The reason I'm calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don't think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can't quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That's why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don't believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player's strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player's quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Wells Fargo Championship rankings

You'll see with the rubric that I've listed the top 75, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

The Wells Fargo Championship is back after a year away, and I kind of miss Quail Hollow. It's a good course that has traditionally attracted a lot of top players. Now it's a good lead into the PGA Championship just a few weeks from now.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS	PLAYER	PTS	DK PRICE	DK RANK	ODDS	ODDS RANK
1	Rahm, Jon	1.858	10800	3	1200	1
2	McIlroy, Rory	1.754	10000	6	1800	4
3	Thomas, Justiin	1.708	11300	1	1200	1
4	DeChambeau, Bryson	1.658	11000	2	1400	3
5	Schauffele, Xander	1.618	10500	4	1800	4
6	Zalatoris, Will	1.447	9400	10	3000	11
7	Cantlay, Patrick	1.36	9600	8	2500	8
8	Simpson, Webb	1.359	10200	5	2000	6
9	Hovland, Viktor	1.264	9800	7	2000	6
10	Reed, Patrick	1.172	9300	11	2500	8
11	Finau, Tony	1.166	9500	9	2500	8
12	Henley, Russell	1.073	7900	26	6000	20
13	Homa, Max	0.981	9000	14	3500	13
14	Niemann, Joaquin	0.904	9100	13	3500	13
15	Tringale, Cameron	0.789	8400	20	4000	15
16	van Rooyen, Erik	0.73	7200	46	15000	48
17	Varner III, Harold	0.724	7600	32	8000	27
18	Im, Sungjae	0.712	8800	16	4000	15
19	Harman, Brian	0.711	8700	17	4000	15
20	Wallace, Matt	0.697	7500	35	8000	27
21	Poulter, Ian	0.696	7300	42	15000	48
22	Watson, Bubba	0.662	8300	21	6000	20
23	Day, Jason	0.652	8600	18	5000	19
24	Conners, Corey	0.65	9200	12	3000	11
25	Fowler, Rickie	0.65	7800	28	8000	27
26	English, Harris	0.636	8000	24	8000	27
27	Lowry, Shane	0.57	8200	22	6000	20
28	Ancer, Abraham	0.551	8900	15	4000	15
29	Kim, Michael	0.548	6000	142	100000	147
30	Gooch, Talor	0.515	7600	32	12500	39
31	Todd, Brendon	0.5	7400	38	10000	32
32	Streelman, Kevin	0.483	7700	30	10000	32
33	Griffin, Lanto	0.444	7400	38	12500	39
34	Suh, Justin	0.442	6100	129	25000	77
35	NeSmith, Matthew	0.441	7300	42	15000	48
36	Seiffert, Chase	0.435	6700	75	25000	77
37	Grillo, Emiliano	0.397	8100	23	6000	20
38	Johnson, Zach	0.378	7100	51	15000	48
39	Vegas, Jhonattan	0.374	7000	56	15000	48
40	Woodland, Gary	0.368	7500	35	12500	39
41	Davis, Cameron	0.347	7100	51	12500	39
42	An, Byeong Hun	0.342	6600	82	30000	87
43	Hahn, James	0.338	6800	67	20000	64
44	Fleetwood, Tommy	0.333	8000	24	6000	20
45	Cink, Stewart	0.331	7900	26	8000	27
46	Munoz, Sebastian	0.328	7300	42	12500	39
47	Glover, Lucas	0.315	7800	28	6000	20
48	Sabbatini, Rory	0.29	6700	75	15000	48
49	Rodgers, Patrick	0.284	6500	90	30000	87
50	Kizzire, Patton	0.276	7000	56	20000	64
51	Dahmen, Joel	0.27	7600	32	10000	32
52	Taylor, Nick	0.261	6600	82	25000	77
53	Hadwin, Adam	0.26	7200	46	15000	48
54	McNealy, Maverick	0.259	7300	42	15000	48
55	Moore, Ryan	0.257	7100	51	10000	32
56	Schenk, Adam	0.247	6800	67	20000	64
57	Lee, Danny	0.24	6600	82	25000	77
58	Perez, Pat	0.239	7000	56	20000	64
59	Bradley, Keegan	0.221	8500	19	6000	20
60	Reavie, Chez	0.22	6700	75	30000	87
61	McCarthy, Denny	0.204	7200	46	12500	39
62	Hoge, Tom	0.179	7000	56	20000	64
63	Lewis, Tom	0.177	6700	75	20000	64
64	Norlander, Henrik	0.174	6500	90	30000	87
65	Molinari, Francesco	0.13	7500	35	12500	39
66	Hubbard, Mark	0.127	6200	118	30000	87
67	Poston, J.T.	0.123	6900	62	20000	64
68	Gordon, Will	0.119	6200	118	30000	87
69	List, Luke	0.11	6800	67	15000	48
70	Hughes, Mackenzie	0.106	7000	56	15000	48
71	Straka, Sepp	0.1	6800	67	20000	64
72	Redman, Doc	0.085	6900	62	15000	48
73	Ortiz, Carlos	0.081	7400	38	10000	32
74	Blixt, Jonas	0.08	6100	129	100000	147
75	Stuard, Brian	0.078	6500	90	30000	87