2021 Valspar Championship model and fantasy golf rankings

Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Valspar Championship!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it's been a tremendous success. Here's a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

• Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger - No. 21
• Valspar Championship: Webb Simpson - No. 7
• Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 10
• Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 2
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa - No. 11
• the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm - No. 6
• WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas - No. 6
• PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 13
• The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - No. 20
• BMW Championship: Jon Rahm - No. 2
• US Open: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 9
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia - No. 40
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak - No. 17
• Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay - No. 9
• The Valspar Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 7
• Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland - No. 5
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English - No. 13
• Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na - No. 33
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed - No. 8
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka - No. 10
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger - No. 1
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa - No. 30
• WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 17
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 3
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas - No. 3
• Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship: Joel Dahmen - No. 22
• Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth - No. 9
• Masters: Hideki Matsuyama - No. 16
• RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink - No. 75

Let me walk you through the rubric's tenets and show off this week's results.

How the rubric works

The reason I'm calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don't think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can't quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That's why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don't believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player's strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player's quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Valspar Championship rankings

You'll see with the rubric that I've listed the top 75, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

The Valspar Championship is in a new slot on the calendar, and the field is very strong for this event. Innisbrook tends to favor ballstrikers, but a good driver of the golf ball and put themselves in position to score well.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS	PLAYER	PTS	DK PRICE	DK RANK	ODDS	ODDS RANK
1	Thomas, Justin	1.494	11500	1	900	1
2	Johnson, Dustin	1.281	11200	2	1200	2
3	Henley, Russell	1.167	9000	13	3500	13
4	Reed, Patrick	1.153	10300	4	1800	3
5	Hovland, Viktor	0.999	10500	3	2000	4
6	Casey, Paul	0.935	10000	5	2000	4
7	Conners, Corey	0.904	9600	7	2000	4
8	Im, Sungjae	0.9	9200	11	3000	8
9	Hatton, Tyrrell	0.886	9400	9	2500	7
10	Kokrak, Jason	0.871	8700	16	3000	8
11	Scheffler, Scottie	0.787	9800	6	3000	8
12	Watson, Bubba	0.782	8900	14	5000	16
13	Tringale, Cameron	0.768	8400	19	5000	16
14	Niemann, Joaquin	0.766	9100	12	3500	13
15	Oosthuizen, Louis	0.735	9500	8	3000	8
16	Hoffman, Charley	0.725	8600	17	5000	16
17	Burns, Sam	0.723	7900	25	6000	22
18	Ancer, Abraham	0.659	9300	10	3000	8
19	Kirk, Chris	0.64	8200	21	5000	16
20	NeSmith, Matthew	0.583	7100	50	12500	43
21	Poulter, Ian	0.538	7400	37	10000	34
22	Streelman, Kevin	0.528	7800	27	6000	22
24	Woodland, Gary	0.527	7800	27	8000	27
23	van Rooyen, Erik	0.527	7600	32	10000	34
25	Palmer, Ryan	0.52	8500	18	5000	16
26	Bryan, Wesley	0.48	6400	97	25000	80
27	Griffin, Lanto	0.477	7400	37	8000	27
28	Homa, Max	0.473	8100	22	6000	22
29	Glover, Lucas	0.46	7700	29	8000	27
30	McCarthy, Denny	0.454	7500	35	8000	27
31	Hadwin, Adam	0.448	7600	32	10000	34
32	Snedeker, Brandt	0.447	7300	41	12500	43
33	Grillo, Emiliano	0.431	8300	20	5000	16
34	Kisner, Kevin	0.382	7700	29	6000	22
35	Ghim, Doug	0.372	7300	41	10000	34
36	Hahn, James	0.35	6900	61	15000	53
37	Gooch, Talor	0.334	8000	23	8000	27
38	Sabbatini, Rory	0.332	7100	50	12500	43
39	Huh, John	0.33	7000	55	15000	53
40	Davis, Cameron	0.319	7500	35	8000	27
41	Vegas, Jhonattan	0.314	7100	50	15000	53
42	Rose, Justin	0.285	8800	15	4000	15
43	Hughes, Mackenzie	0.281	7400	37	10000	34
44	Poston, J.T.	0.281	7200	45	12500	43
45	Na, Kevin	0.264	8000	23	6000	22
46	Percy, Cameron	0.223	6500	88	30000	96
47	Willett, Danny	0.211	7200	45	12500	43
48	Bradley, Keegan	0.209	7900	25	8000	27
49	Kizzire, Patton	0.209	7200	45	15000	53
50	Hoge, Tom	0.205	6900	61	15000	53
51	Hubbard, Mark	0.194	6300	107	30000	96
52	An, Byeong Hun	0.183	6600	80	20000	66
53	Straka, Sepp	0.178	6800	66	15000	53
54	List, Luke	0.174	7000	55	20000	66
55	Piercy, Scott	0.173	6600	80	25000	80
56	Perez, Pat	0.16	6500	88	25000	80
57	Stuard, Brian	0.154	6500	88	25000	80
58	Knox, Russell	0.15	7100	50	15000	53
59	Norlander, Henrik	0.143	6600	80	25000	80
60	Moore, Ryan	0.141	6900	61	12500	43
61	Reavie, Chez	0.133	6700	73	25000	80
62	Lee, Danny	0.13	6200	117	30000	96
63	Ventura, Kris	0.12	6700	73	25000	80
64	Howell III, Charles	0.119	7700	29	10000	34
65	Grace, Branden	0.098	7600	32	10000	34
66	Schenk, Adam	0.095	6800	66	20000	66
67	Taylor, Nick	0.09	6700	73	25000	80
69	Redman, Doc	0.042	6600	80	20000	66
68	Blixt, Jonas	0.042	6100	128	50000	126
70	Johnson, Zach	0.04	7200	45	12500	43
71	Laird, Martin	0.038	6800	66	15000	53
72	Seiffert, Chase	0.025	6600	80	20000	66
73	Mitchell, Keith	0.018	7000	55	15000	53
74	Stanley, Kyle	-0.001	6800	66	25000	80
75	Rodgers, Patrick	-0.016	6400	97	25000	80