Each week, including this week's 2025 Texas Children's Houston Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2025 Texas Children's Houston Open rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 2.401 | 12700 | 400 |
| 2 | McIlroy, Rory | 1.901 | 11700 | 700 |
| 3 | Rai, Aaron | 1.014 | 9800 | 2500 |
| 4 | McNealy, Maverick | 0.909 | 8300 | 5000 |
| 5 | Bridgeman, Jacob | 0.906 | 8400 | 4000 |
| 6 | Lee, Min Woo | 0.873 | 9600 | 3500 |
| 7 | Clark, Wyndham | 0.859 | 9100 | 4000 |
| 8 | Kim, Si Woo | 0.84 | 8900 | 4000 |
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| 9 | Finau, Tony | 0.839 | 9200 | 3500 |
| 10 | Mitchell, Keith | 0.833 | 8000 | 6000 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2025 Texas Children's Houston Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Jacob Bridgeman - 3 - 2nd Cognizant Classic, T-15 API, 3rd Valspar
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-4 Mexico Open, T-4 Cognizant Classic
- Rio Hisatsune - 2 - T-10 Mexico Open, T-4 Valspar
- Michael Kim - 4 - T-13 Genesis Invitational, T-13 Mexico Open, T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-4 API
- Jake Knapp - 2 - T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-12 The Players
- Rory McIlroy - 2 - T-15 API, WIN The Players
- Aaron Rai - 3 - T-4 Mexico Open, T-11 API, T-14 The Players
- Davis Riley - 2 - T-6 Puerto Rico, 7th Valspar
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-10 Mexico Open, T-14 The Players
- JJ Spaun - 2 - 2nd Cognizant Classic, P-2 The Players
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Texas Children's Houston Open in the last three years at Memorial Park.
Here are those players:
- Joel Dahmen - 2
- Tony Finau - 2
- Stephan Jaeger - 2
- Alex Noren - 2
- Aaron Rai - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 3
- Alex Smalley - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Texas Children's Houston Open.
Here's the breakdown:
Putting: 38%
Tee to Green: 62%
Off the Tee: 18%
Approach: 28%
Around the Green: 14%
Potential fits include:
Sam Burns
JT Poston
Sam Stevens
Stephan Jaeger
Min Woo Lee
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
