Each week, including this week's 2025 The Players Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2025 The Players Championship rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 2.929 | 12800 | 500 |
| 2 | Schauffele, Xander | 2.413 | 11100 | 2500 |
| 3 | McIlroy, Rory | 2.383 | 11500 | 1200 |
| 4 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 1.981 | 9900 | 3000 |
| 5 | Aberg, Ludvig | 1.844 | 10200 | 1800 |
| 6 | Morikawa, Collin | 1.795 | 10500 | 1200 |
| 7 | Fleetwood, Tommy | 1.586 | 9800 | 2500 |
| 8 | Lowry, Shane | 1.459 | 9100 | 4000 |
| 9 | Henley, Russell | 1.444 | 9500 | 2500 |
| 10 | Cantlay, Patrick | 1.421 | 10000 | 4000 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
2025 The Players Championship: Tournament Model | Field | Rankings | Horses for Courses | DFS Picks | Betting Odds | One and Done | Course Breakdown | Past Results | Cheat Sheet | Recent Form | Finish Database
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
SAVE ON GNN MEMBERSHIP: Join now, and get 2 years for $70 OR 3 years for $100! (One year is $40.) Access all our winning tools and analysis, as well as two annual gifts!
2025 The Players Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Daniel Berger - 2 - 2nd Phoenix Open, T-12 Genesis Invitational
- Akshy Bhatia - 2 - T-9 Genesis Invitational, T-9 Mexico Open
- Jason Day - 2 - T-13 Pebble Beach, T-8 API
- Tony Finau - 2 - T-13 Pebble Beach, T-5 Genesis Invitational
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2 - T-5 Genesis Invitational, T-11 API
- Ben Griffin - 2 - T-4 Mexico Open, T-4 Cognizant Classic
- Russell Henley - 2 - T-5 Pebble Beach, WIN API
- Michael Kim - 4 - 2nd Phoenix Open, T-13 Genesis Invitational, T-6 Cognizant Classic, T-4 API
- Min Woo Lee - 2 - T-12 Phoenix Open, T-11 Cognizant Classic
- Shane Lowry - 3 - 2nd Pebble Beach, T-11 Cognizant Classic, T-7 API
- Robert MacIntyre - 2 - T-6 Phoenix Open, T-11 API
- Rory McIlroy - 2 - WIN Pebble Beach, T-15 API
- Mav McNealy - 2 - T-9 Phoenix Open, 2nd Genesis Invitational
- Andrew Novak - 2 - T-13 Pebble Beach, T-13 Genesis Invitational
- Aaron Rai - 2 - T-4 Mexico Open, T-11 API
- Justin Rose - 2 - 3rd Pebble Beach, T-8 API
- Scottie Scheffler - 3 - T-9 Pebble Beach, 3rd Genesis Invitational, T-11 API
- Jordan Spieth - 2 - T-4 Phoenix Open, T-9 Cognizant Classic
- Sepp Straka - 4 - T-7 Pebble Beach, T-15 Phoenix Open, T-11 Cognizant Classic, T-5 API
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the The Players Championship in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Daniel Berger - 2
- Corey Conners - 2
- Adam Hadwin - 2
- Brian Harman - 2
- Max Homa - 2
- Viktor Hovland - 2
- Si Woo Kim - 2
- Shane Lowry - 2
- Hideki Matsuyama - 2
- Scottie Scheffler - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's The Players Championship.
Here's the breakdown:
Putting: 27%
Tee to Green: 73%
Off the Tee: 19%
Approach: 41%
Around the Green: 13%
Potential fits include:
Kurt Kitayama
Xander Schauffele
Adam Scott
Tommy Fleetwood
Erik van Rooyen
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
