Each week, including this week's 2025 Farmers Insurance Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model.
2025 Farmers Insurance Open rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 1.732 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Morikawa, Collin | 1.392 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Im, Sungjae | 1.326 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Aberg, Ludvig | 1.324 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Finau, Tony | 1.056 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Bradley, Keegan | 1.046 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | McNealy, Maverick | 1.045 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Greyserman, Max | 0.932 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Rai, Aaron | 0.883 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Griffin, Ben | 0.766 | 0 | 0 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2025 Farmers Insurance Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Keegan Bradley - 2 - T-15 The Sentry, T-6 Sony Open
- Eric Cole - 2 - T-15 The RSM Classic, T-5 Sony Open
- Patrick Fishburn - 2 - T-12 WWT Championship, T-8 The RSM Classic
- Max Greyserman - 2 - T-2 Zozo Championship, T-14 WWT Championship
- Ben Griffin - 2 - 8th Bermuda Championship, T-15 The RSM Classic
- Harry Hall - 2 - T-8 The Sentry, T-10 Sony Open
- Lee Hodges - 2 - T-5 The RSM Classic, T-10 Sony Open
- Michael Kim - 2 - T-13 Zozo Championship, T-11 The RSM Classic
- Maverick McNealy - 2 - WIN The RSM Classic, T-8 The Sentry
- Sepp Straka - 2 - T-15 The Sentry, The American Express
- Vince Whaley - 2 - T-5 Bermuda Championship, T-8 The RSM Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the Farmers Insurance Open in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Jason Day - 2
- Tony Finau - 4
- Max Homa - 3
- Beau Hossler - 2
- Sungjae Im - 2
- Luke List - 2
- Hideki Matsuyama - 2
- Taylor Montgomery - 2
- Patrick Rodgers - 2
- Sam Ryder - 2
- Will Zalatoris - 3
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
This week, we get three rounds on the South Course for players who make the cut, so course fits make sense.
Here's the breakdown:
Putting: 36%
Tee to Green: 64%
Off the Tee: 14%
Approach: 36%
Around the Green: 14%
Potential fits include:
Jason Day
Sahith Theegala
Akshay Bhatia
Stephan Jaeger
Max Homa
Austin Eckroat
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
