Each week, including this week's 2025 The American Express, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
Let's look at the top 10 players in this week's PGA Tour model. (Last week, Nick Taylor was No. 12 at 120-to-1.)
2025 The American Express rankings: Top 10
| POS | PLAYER | PTS | DK PRICE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Im, Sungjae | 1.424 | 10300 | 0 |
| 3 | Burns, Sam | 1.393 | 9800 | 0 |
| 4 | Cantlay, Patrick | 1.266 | 9600 | 0 |
| 5 | Finau, Tony | 1.153 | 9500 | 0 |
| 6 | Mitchell, Keith | 1.083 | 7400 | 0 |
| 7 | Greyserman, Max | 1.021 | 9200 | 0 |
| 8 | van Rooyen, Erik | 0.978 | 7100 | 0 |
| 9 | Griffin, Ben | 0.953 | 7800 | 0 |
| 10 | Svensson, Jesper | 0.904 | 7000 | 0 |
| 11 | Hoge, Tom | 0.878 | 7800 | 0 |
You can find this week's model right here, with full access for GNN members.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
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2025 The American Express history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events. This week, we're including players in the PGA Tour fields this week.
- Jacob Bridgeman - 2 - T-14 WWT Championship, T-12 Bermuda Championship
- Eric Cole - 3 - T-6 Zozo Championship, T-15 The RSM Classic, T-5 Sony Open
- Nico Echavarria - 4 - WIN Zozo Championship, T-6 WWT Championship, T-2 The RSM Classic, P-2 Sony Open
- Patrick Fishburn - 2 - T-12 WWT Championship, T-8 The RSM Classic
- Max Greyserman - 2 - T-2 Zozo Championship, T-14 WWT Championship
- Ben Griffin - 2 - 8th Bermuda Championship, T-15 The RSM Classic
- Harry Hall - 4 - T-13 Zozo Championship, T-14 WWT Championship, T-8 The Sentry, T-10 Sony Open
- Joe Highsmith - 2 - T-5 WWT Championship, T-11 The RSM Classic
- Lee Hodges - 2 - T-5 The RSM Classic, T-10 Sony Open
- Sungjae Im - 2 - T-13 Zozo Championship, 3rd The Sentry
- Michael Kim - 2 - T-13 Zozo Championship, T-11 The RSM Classic
- David Lipsky - 2 - T-6 WWT Championship, T-9 Bermuda Championship
- JJ Spaun - 2 - T-6 Zozo Championship, T-3 Sony Open
- Vince Whaley - 2 - T-5 Bermuda Championship, T-8 The RSM Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 at the The American Express in the last five years.
Here are those players:
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout - 2
- Sam Burns - 3
- Patrick Cantlay - 2
- Tony Finau - 3
- Brian Harman - 2
- Tom Hoge - 2
- Sungjae Im - 3
- Si Woo Kim - 2
- JT Poston - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's The American Express.
However, in a three-course rotation event with just one measuring strokes gained at the PGA West Stadium Course, finding fits is an impossible task.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
Good luck this week!
