2023 Valspar Championship betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks

2023 Valspar Championship betting and DFS picks: Current form, course fit and horses for courses

A photo of golfer Denny McCarthy


Each week, including this week's 2023 Valspar Championship, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.

However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.

2023 Valspar Championship history and current PGA Tour finish trends

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Ryan Gerard - 2 - T-4 Honda Classic, T-11 Puerto Rico
  • Adam Hadwin - 2 - T-10 Phoenix Open, T-13 The Players
  • David Lingmerth - 2 - T-10 Honda Classic, T-6 The Players
  • Denny McCarthy - 2 - T-14 Genesis Invitational, T-13 The Players
  • Jordan Spieth - 2 - T-6 Phoenix Open, T-4 API
  • Justin Suh - T-5 Honda Classic, T-6 The Players

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years.

Course Fits

A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.

This week's breakout:

Putting: 38%
Tee to Green: 62%
Off the Tee: 18%
Approach: 25%
Around the Green: 19%

Some fits include:

Ryan Moore
Stephen Jaegar
Patton Kizzire
JT Poston
Davis Riley

Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field at Riviera.

I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour. You might be surprised to see which courses seem to relate to the Riv.

This week's model

Check out the 2023 Valspar Championship model, which is available to GNN members.

My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.

We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!

We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!

Good luck this week!

About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is a scratch golfer...sometimes.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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