Each week, including this week's 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
2023 Farmers Insurance Open history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Tony Finau - 2 - WIN Houston, T-7 Kapalua
- Will Gordon - 2 - T-3 Mayakoba, T-15 RSM
- Tom Kim - 2 - T-5 Kapalua, T-6 AmEx
- Patton Kizzire - 2 - T-10 Mayakoba, T-11 AmEx
- Maverick McNealy - 2 - T-10 Maykoba, T-7 Sony
- Taylor Montgomery - 5 - T-10 Mayakoba, T-15 RSM, T-12 Sony, T-5 AmEx
- Collin Morikawa - 2 - 2nd Kapalua, T-15 Mayakoba
- Jon Rahm - 2 - WIN Kapalua, WIN AmEx
- Robby Shelton - 2 - T-10 RSM, T-6 AmEx
- Alex Smalley - 2 - T-4 Houston, T-5 RSM
- JJ Spaun - 4 - T-15 Mayakoba, T-15 RSM, T-5 Kapalua, T-12 Sony
- Ben Taylor - 2 - T-3 Houston, T-4 Sony
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 5 in this particular event in the last five years (played four times).
- Jason Day - 3
- Tony Finau - 4
- Lanto Griffin - 2
- Luke List - 3
- Hideki Matsuayam - 2
- Ryan Palmer - 3
- Jon Rahm - 4
- Justin Rose - 3
- Michael Thompson - 2
- Gary Woodland - 2
- Will Zalatoris - 2
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Since we really only have strokes gained for the host course, we're going to avoid fitting this week.
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field at Torrey South.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour. You might be surprised to see which courses seem to relate to Waialae.
This week's model
My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.
We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!
We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!
Good luck this week!