Each week, including this week's 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Stewart Cink - 2 - T-12 Masters, WIN RBC Heritage
- Corey Conners - 3 - T-14 Valero Texas Open, T-8 Masters, T-4 RBC Heritage
- Emiliano Grillo - 2 - T-6 Corales Puntacana, 2nd RBC Heritage
- Brian Harman - 2 - T-12 Masters, T-13 RBC Heritage
- Chris Kirk - 2 - T-6 Valero Texas Open, T-7 RBC Heritage
- Webb Simpson - 2 - T-12 Masters, T-9 RBC Heritage
- Cameron Tringale - 2 - T-9 Valero Texas Open, T-3 Valspar Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.
- Rickie Fowler - 2
- Danny Lee - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 3
- Phil Mickelson - 3
- Pat Perez - 2
- Patrick Reed - 2
- Kyle Stanley - 2
- Brendan Steele - 2
- Vaughn Taylor - 2
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Here's our breakdown this week:
Putting: 38%
Tee to Green: 62%
Off the Tee: 19%
Approach: 31%
Around the Green: 12%
Some fits include:
Bryson DeChambeau
Matt NeSmith
Joel Dahmen
Xander Schauffele
Phil Mickelson
Joaquin Niemann
Rickie Fowler
Scott Piercy
Matt Jones
Sungjae Im
Cameron Tringale
Jason Day
Webb Simpson
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Cink, Stewart: 1.855
- Jones, Matt: 1.695
- Simpson, Webb: 1.593
- Wallace, Matt: 1.346
- Mahan, Hunter: 0.988
- Streb, Robert: 0.973
- Martin, Ben: 0.896
- Tringale, Cameron: 0.863
- Hossler, Beau: 0.806
- Choi, K.J.: 0.764
Here are the underperformers:
- Murray, Grayson: -1.957
- Oppenheim, Rob: -1.887
- Shelton, Robby: -1.703
- Johnson, Zach: -1.458
- English, Harris: -1.369
- Piercy, Scott: -1.363
- Dahmen, Joel: -1.308
- Cook, Austin: -1.248
- Gligic, Michael: -1.172
- Redman, Doc: -1.109
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week's model
Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I like JT, Bryson, Rahm, Xander and Webb. So, not Rory.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Viktor Hovland, Finau, Zalatoris, Pat Reed, Conners, Niemann, Homa, Sungjae, Harman, Tingale, Grillo.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Stewart Cink, maybe Rickie, Brendan Steele, Dahmen, Matt Wallace, Matt NeSmith, Matt Jones, Cam Davis, Patton Kizzire and Kyle Stanley.
Below or at $7,000
We're looking for bargains in this range. Phil Mickelson, Adam Long, Ben An and Bronson Burgoon are guys I'd look at if needed.
A sample Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings GPP lineup
- Will Zalatoris - $9,400
- Brian Harman - $8,700
- Cameron Tringale - $8,400
- Emiliano Grillo - $8,100
- Stewart Cink - $7,900
- Matt Jones - $7,400
