Each week, including this week's 2021 RBC Heritage, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 RBC Heritage DraftKings picks
Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Rafael Campos - 2 - T-3 Puerto Rico Open, T-2 Corales Puntacana
- Corey Conners - 3 - T-3 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-14 Valero Texas Open, T-8 Masters
- Brice Garnett - 2 - T-5 Puerto Rico Open, T-9 Corales Puntacana
- Emiliano Grillo - 2 - T-11 Puerto Rico Open, T-6 Corales Puntacana
- Charley Hoffman - 2 - T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2nd Valero Texas Open
- Chris Kirk - 2 - T-8 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-6 Valero Texas Open
- Andrew Putnam - 2 - T-5 Puerto Rico Open, T-4 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Chase Seiffert - 2 - T-15 Puerto Rico Open, T-3 The Honda Classic
- Will Zalatoris - 2 - T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2nd Masters
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Matt Fitzpatrick - 2
- Branden Grace - 2
- Bill Haas - 2
- Si Woo Kim - 2
- Kevin Kisner - 2
- Russell Knox - 2
- Matt Kuchar - 2
- William McGirt - 2
- Kevin Na - 2
- JT Poston - 2
- Ian Poulter - 4
- Webb Simpson - 3
- Kevin Streelman - 2
- Michael Thompson - 2
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Here's our breakdown this week:
Putting: 34%
Tee to Green: 66%
Over the Top: 18%
Approach: 33%
Around the Green: 15%
Some fits include:
Matthew NeSmith
Shane Lowry
Matt Wallace
Chris Kirk
Daniel Berger
Sungjae Im
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Hagy, Brandon: 2.022
- Haas, Bill: 1.74
- Choi, K.J.: 1.629
- Wallace, Matt: 1.53
- Willett, Danny: 1.419
- Smith, Cameron: 1.415
- Streb, Robert: 1.392
- Cantlay, Patrick: 1.215
- Campos, Rafael: 1.133
- Morikawa, Collin: 1.059
Here are the underperformers:
- Gligic, Michael: -2.8
- Bryan, Wesley: -2.035
- Swafford, Hudson: -1.876
- Johnson, Zach: -1.856
- Watney, Nick: -1.644
- Sabbatini, Rory: -1.592
- English, Harris: -1.307
- Shelton, Robby: -1.185
- Schenk, Adam: -1.049
- Augenstein, John: -1.009
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week's model
Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 RBC Heritage DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I like Webb, Morikawa, Cam Smith and Berger.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Zalatoris, Conners, Fitzpatrick, Harman, Lowry, Na.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Si Woo, Bob MacIntyre, Charley Hoffman, Branden Grace, Ian Poulter (only as horse-for-course), Matt Wallace, Chris Kirk, Cam Davis, Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo, Zach Johnson, Michael Thompson. Could take a flier on JT Poston, but there's so much value in this range that he's hard to like.
Below or at $7,000
We're looking for bargains in this range. Denny McCarthy feels like Wes Bryan in terms of profile. Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, Matthew NeSmith (S.C. native), maybe Chase Seiffert.
A sample RBC Heritage DraftKings GPP lineup
- Will Zalatoris - $9,700
- Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,100
- Brian Harman - $8,700
- Si Woo Kim - $7,900
- Cameron Davis - $7,400
- Michael Thompson - $7,200
