2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks PGA Tour

2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play model and fantasy golf rankings



Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
  • The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7
  • Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland – No. 5
  • Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English – No. 13
  • Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na – No. 33
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed – No. 8
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka – No. 10
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger – No. 1
  • The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa – No. 30
  • WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 17
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 3
  • The Players Championship: Justin Thomas – No. 3

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.

How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the whole field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

The WGC match-play event is difficult, if not impossible, to predict, particularly with group play. Our model does not account for the groups, so what I’m showing is all based on form in stroke-play events.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Rahm, Jon 1.801 10700 4 1200 1
2 McIlroy, Rory 1.694 10200 6 2000 5
3 Thomas, Justin 1.639 11200 2 1200 1
4 Simpson, Webb 1.556 9100 13 3500 14
5 Cantlay, Patrick 1.548 9800 8 2500 7
6 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.546 10900 3 1200 1
7 Schauffele, Xander 1.538 10000 7 2500 7
8 Finau, Tony 1.358 9200 12 3000 13
9 Berger, Daniel 1.31 9000 14 3500 14
10 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 1.292 8700 17 4000 19
11 Morikawa, Collin 1.247 10400 5 2000 5
12 Reed, Patrick 1.192 9600 9 2500 7
13 Hovland, Viktor 1.161 9400 10 2500 7
14 Hatton, Tyrrell 1.054 8600 18 3500 14
15 Scheffler, Scottie 1.048 7900 25 5000 21
16 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.046 8200 22 5000 21
17 Johnson, Dustin 1.023 11500 1 1200 1
18 Zalatoris, Will 1 7900 25 5000 21
19 Kokrak, Jason 0.961 7500 33 5000 21
20 Henley, Russell 0.909 7500 33 8000 34
21 Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 0.889 7600 31 6000 30
22 Casey, Paul 0.78 8900 15 2500 7
23 Conners, Corey 0.757 7800 27 5000 21
24 English, Harris 0.749 7300 37 8000 34
25 Ancer, Abraham 0.724 7700 29 6000 30
26 Niemann, Joaquin 0.713 8000 24 5000 21
27 Poulter, Ian 0.685 6700 49 10000 43
28 Oosthuizen, Louis 0.67 8100 23 4000 19
29 Van Rooyen, Erik 0.643 6400 55 15000 54
30 Homa, Max 0.64 7400 35 8000 34
31 Harman, Brian 0.625 7200 39 8000 34
32 Smith, Cameron 0.615 8500 19 3500 14
33 Garcia, Sergio 0.595 8300 21 5000 21
34 Day, Jason 0.594 8400 20 5000 21
35 Fleetwood, Tommy 0.559 7800 27 5000 21
36 Horschel, Billy 0.557 7200 39 8000 34
37 Griffin, Lanto 0.542 6900 45 12500 49
38 Na, Kevin 0.535 7100 41 10000 43
39 Im, Sungjae 0.509 8800 16 3500 14
40 Kisner, Kevin 0.491 7600 31 6000 30
41 Wallace, Matt 0.478 7000 43 8000 34
42 Watson, Bubba 0.455 7400 35 8000 34
43 Spieth, Jordan 0.395 9300 11 2500 7
44 Poston, J.T. 0.377 6300 57 20000 59
45 Westwood, Lee 0.367 7700 29 6000 30
46 Gooch, Talor 0.364 6600 51 12500 49
47 Todd, Brendon 0.356 6400 55 12500 49
48 Ortiz, Carlos 0.34 6800 47 10000 43
49 Munoz, Sebastian 0.266 6100 61 15000 54
50 Streelman, Kevin 0.258 6300 57 15000 54
51 Palmer, Ryan 0.244 7000 43 8000 34
52 Wolff, Matthew 0.215 6900 45 10000 43
53 Kuchar, Matt 0.143 6700 49 12500 49
54 Hughes, Mackenzie 0.124 6100 61 20000 59
55 Lowry, Shane 0.107 7100 41 10000 43
56 Frittelli, Dylan -0.006 6500 53 15000 54
57 Leishman, Marc -0.133 6800 47 10000 43
58 Long, Adam -0.429 6000 63 25000 59
59 Wiesberger, Bernd -0.601 6200 59 20000 59
60 Kim, Si Woo -0.791 7300 37 8000 34
61 Macintyre, Robert -0.951 6500 53 15000 54
62 Rozner, Antoine -1.1 6200 59 20000 59
63 Perez, Victor -1.582 6600 51 12500 49
64 Sullivan, Andy -2.713 6000 63 20000 59

About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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