Each week, including this week’s 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Tony Finau – 2 – 2nd Genesis Invitational, T-14 WGC Concession
- Matt Fitzpatrick – 3 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, T-11 WGC Concession, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Max Homa – 2 – WIN Genesis Invitational, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Viktor Hovland – 2 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, 2nd WGC Concession
- Jason Kokrak – 2 – T-9 WGC Concession, T-8 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Rory McIlroy – 2 – T-6 WGC Concession, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Cameron Smith – 2 – 4th Genesis Invitational, T-11 WGC Concession
- Jordan Spieth – 2 – T-15 Genesis Invitational, T-4 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Will Zalatoris – 2 – T-15 Genesis Invitational, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the four years Austin Country Club has hosted.
- Louis Oosthuizen – 3
- Matt Kuchar – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Bubba Watson – 2
- Kevin Kisner – 2
- Patrick Reed – 2
- Sergio Garcia – 2
- Paul Casey – 2
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2
- Kevin Na – 2
- Marc Leishman – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We can’t model this week because we don’t get strokes gained data, and it’s match play anyhow.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Cantlay, Patrick: 1.407
- Casey, Paul: 1.275
- Spieth, Jordan: 1.119
- Finau, Tony: 1.112
- Na, Kevin: 1.001
- Smith, Cameron: 0.91
- Wallace, Matt: 0.872
- Fleetwood, Tommy: 0.834
- Hovland, Viktor: 0.794
- Oosthuizen, Louis: 0.771
Here are the underperformers:
- Sullivan, Andy: -1.23
- English, Harris: -1.225
- Long, Adam: -0.981
- Thomas, Justin: -0.907
- Watson, Bubba: -0.839
- Wiesberger, Bernd: -0.824
- Poston, J.T.: -0.71
- Henley, Russell: -0.669
- Wolff, Matthew: -0.512
- Kisner, Kevin: -0.494
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play DraftKings recommendations
Remember, DraftKings has unique scoring for this week’s match-play event, so plan accordingly.
$10,000 and up
We have seven players in this group, and I like DJ, JT, Bryson, Rahm and Morikawa all to move out of their groups. I have JT going super deep.
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Hovland, Spieth, Casey, Sungjae, Hatton, Cam Smith to move on.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Scottie Scheffler should be a popular pick this week. Kokrak, Conners and Kisner deserve some attention. Brian Harman is my favorite dark horse.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. I don’t really like anyone to get out of their group from here, but Adam Long could be fascinating in a weird group.
A sample WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play DraftKings GPP lineup
- Viktor Hovland – $9,400
- Paul Casey – $8,900
- Cameron Smith – $8,500
- Scottie Scheffler – $7,900
- Jason Kokrak – $7,500
- Brian Harman – $7,200