2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship model and fantasy golf rankings

Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it's been a tremendous success. Here's a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

• Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger - No. 21
• RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson - No. 7
• Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 10
• Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 2
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa - No. 11
• the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm - No. 6
• WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas - No. 6
• PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 13
• The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - No. 20
• BMW Championship: Jon Rahm - No. 2
• US Open: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 9
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia - No. 40
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak - No. 17
• Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay - No. 9
• The Masters: Dustin Johnson - No. 7
• Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland - No. 5
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English - No. 13
• Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na - No. 33
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed - No. 8
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka - No. 10
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger - No. 1
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa - No. 30
• WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 17
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 3
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas - No. 3

Let me walk you through the rubric's tenets and show off this week's results.

How the rubric works

The reason I'm calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don't think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can't quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That's why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don't believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player's strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player's quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship rankings

You'll see with the rubric that I've listed the top 50, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This event is being played for the third time in the DR, and there's a top-heavy nature to this field. Still, expect the unexpected.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS	PLAYER	PTS	DK PRICE	DK RANK	ODDS	ODDS RANK
1	Pendrith, Taylor	1.649	8100	22	4000	14
2	Pieters, Thomas	0.92	11100	1	1800	1
3	Taylor, Ben	0.572	6400	87	30000	95
4	Hoffman, Charley	0.464	10200	4	1800	1
5	Suh, Justin	0.376	8700	16	3500	10
6	Ventura, Kristoffer	0.358	7300	39	10000	46
7	Detry, Thomas	0.339	10800	2	2500	4
8	Harrington, Padraig	0.338	7500	33	8000	31
9	Jaeger, Stephan	0.24	8200	21	5000	21
10	Barjon, Paul	0.209	6700	67	15000	69
11	Perez, Pat	0.208	7400	36	8000	31
12	Kim, Michael	0.192	6500	79	25000	87
13	Rodgers, Patrick	0.179	8300	20	3500	10
14	Straka, Sepp	0.173	8800	15	4000	14
15	Grillo, Emiliano	0.172	10500	3	2000	3
16	Vegas, Jhonattan	0.164	9800	6	2500	4
17	Schenk, Adam	0.137	7900	25	5000	21
18	Daffue, MJ	0.089	6200	103	10000	46
19	Seiffert, Chase	0.082	8000	23	5000	21
20	Willett, Danny	0.054	9600	7	3500	10
21	Stuard, Brian	0.042	6600	73	15000	69
22	Dahmen, Joel	0.033	7700	29	4000	14
23	Gordon, Will	0.033	8600	17	4000	14
24	Hadley, Chesson	0.033	6800	61	10000	46
25	Uresti, Omar	0.026	6100	112	200000	125
26	Martin, Ben	0.02	6700	67	10000	46
27	Guerra, Juan Jose	0	6100	112	100000	114
28	Johnson, Richard	0	6100	112	100000	114
29	Ryder, Sam	-0.009	9000	13	4000	14
30	Wagner, Johnson	-0.015	6300	95	30000	95
31	Merritt, Troy	-0.019	6700	67	12500	62
32	List, Luke	-0.025	8900	14	3000	7
33	Merrick, John	-0.029	6100	112	100000	114
34	Howell III, Charles	-0.034	10000	5	3000	7
35	Pride, Dicky	-0.036	6100	112	200000	125
36	Baker, Chris	-0.053	6300	95	20000	77
37	Sloan, Roger	-0.083	8400	19	5000	21
38	Uihlein, Peter	-0.094	7800	27	6000	28
39	Duncan, Tyler	-0.099	7000	51	10000	46
40	Zanotti, Fabrizio	-0.1	7500	33	8000	31
41	Teater, Josh	-0.111	7000	51	10000	46
42	Garnett, Brice	-0.117	8000	23	5000	21
43	Sucher, Zack	-0.117	6600	73	15000	69
44	Lebioda, Hank	-0.142	6700	67	15000	69
45	Watney, Nick	-0.16	6300	95	25000	87
46	Gomez, Fabian	-0.165	6500	79	15000	69
47	Power, Seamus	-0.169	6900	56	10000	46
48	Holmes, J.B.	-0.176	7700	29	8000	31
49	Hagy, Brandon	-0.177	9200	11	4000	14
50	Wilkinson, Tim	-0.186	7300	39	8000	31