2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks PGA Tour

2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship model and fantasy golf rankings



Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
  • The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7
  • Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland – No. 5
  • Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English – No. 13
  • Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na – No. 33
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed – No. 8
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka – No. 10
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger – No. 1
  • The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa – No. 30
  • WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 17
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 3
  • The Players Championship: Justin Thomas – No. 3

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.

How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This event is being played for the third time in the DR, and there’s a top-heavy nature to this field. Still, expect the unexpected.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Pendrith, Taylor 1.649 8100 22 4000 14
2 Pieters, Thomas 0.92 11100 1 1800 1
3 Taylor, Ben 0.572 6400 87 30000 95
4 Hoffman, Charley 0.464 10200 4 1800 1
5 Suh, Justin 0.376 8700 16 3500 10
6 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.358 7300 39 10000 46
7 Detry, Thomas 0.339 10800 2 2500 4
8 Harrington, Padraig 0.338 7500 33 8000 31
9 Jaeger, Stephan 0.24 8200 21 5000 21
10 Barjon, Paul 0.209 6700 67 15000 69
11 Perez, Pat 0.208 7400 36 8000 31
12 Kim, Michael 0.192 6500 79 25000 87
13 Rodgers, Patrick 0.179 8300 20 3500 10
14 Straka, Sepp 0.173 8800 15 4000 14
15 Grillo, Emiliano 0.172 10500 3 2000 3
16 Vegas, Jhonattan 0.164 9800 6 2500 4
17 Schenk, Adam 0.137 7900 25 5000 21
18 Daffue, MJ 0.089 6200 103 10000 46
19 Seiffert, Chase 0.082 8000 23 5000 21
20 Willett, Danny 0.054 9600 7 3500 10
21 Stuard, Brian 0.042 6600 73 15000 69
22 Dahmen, Joel 0.033 7700 29 4000 14
23 Gordon, Will 0.033 8600 17 4000 14
24 Hadley, Chesson 0.033 6800 61 10000 46
25 Uresti, Omar 0.026 6100 112 200000 125
26 Martin, Ben 0.02 6700 67 10000 46
27 Guerra, Juan Jose 0 6100 112 100000 114
28 Johnson, Richard 0 6100 112 100000 114
29 Ryder, Sam -0.009 9000 13 4000 14
30 Wagner, Johnson -0.015 6300 95 30000 95
31 Merritt, Troy -0.019 6700 67 12500 62
32 List, Luke -0.025 8900 14 3000 7
33 Merrick, John -0.029 6100 112 100000 114
34 Howell III, Charles -0.034 10000 5 3000 7
35 Pride, Dicky -0.036 6100 112 200000 125
36 Baker, Chris -0.053 6300 95 20000 77
37 Sloan, Roger -0.083 8400 19 5000 21
38 Uihlein, Peter -0.094 7800 27 6000 28
39 Duncan, Tyler -0.099 7000 51 10000 46
40 Zanotti, Fabrizio -0.1 7500 33 8000 31
41 Teater, Josh -0.111 7000 51 10000 46
42 Garnett, Brice -0.117 8000 23 5000 21
43 Sucher, Zack -0.117 6600 73 15000 69
44 Lebioda, Hank -0.142 6700 67 15000 69
45 Watney, Nick -0.16 6300 95 25000 87
46 Gomez, Fabian -0.165 6500 79 15000 69
47 Power, Seamus -0.169 6900 56 10000 46
48 Holmes, J.B. -0.176 7700 29 8000 31
49 Hagy, Brandon -0.177 9200 11 4000 14
50 Wilkinson, Tim -0.186 7300 39 8000 31

About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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