The Break: Who Will Win the US Open?

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The US Open is this week, and Shinnecock Hills is no doubt going to be an exacting test.

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The US Open is this week, and the best US Open venue (in my opinion) in Shinnecock Hills welcomes the world back to the Hamptons for the national championship for the first time since 2018. That was when Brooks Koepka went back-to-back, Zach Johnson said the USGA had lost the course, Tommy Fleetwood somehow had a putt for 62 and when Phil Mickelson hit a moving putt.

Shinnecock Hills is such a tough golf course. The sandy soil makes the place play firm and fast, with rolling land that makes bounces impossible to control at times. The wind will dry out the course, forcing the USGA to gameplan green speeds and watering regimens to take the property to the absolute edge of playability. The course may already be there on Tuesday, and the hoses are in full force to keep the water flowing on the putting surfaces.

The wind is going to blow in upwards of 30 mph on Thursday and at least 15 mph the rest of the way. The fairways are wider, sure, but the rough that awaits errant tee shots could break someone’s wrist.

Yeah, Oakmont is really, really tough. But Shinnecock just seems a step tougher. It’ll be great to have had the two toughest championship courses in the world in back-to-back Opens.

There are so many questions to answer. Can Rory’s high ball flight work in the wind? Can Scottie plot his way around a place without many good bailout spots? Can Bryson’s bomb-and-gouge style win him a third Open? Will Matt Fitzpatrick thrive in another difficul setup?

I’m so excited.

For more on Rory McIlroy’s PGA Tour schedule critiques and concerns, scroll down!

2 Off the 1st: Who will win the 2026 US Open, and Rory questions the new PGA Tour schedule

On this special US Open preview edition of the show, Ryan looks at Shinnecock Hills, talks about who should do well at the US Open and what to expect in terms of conditions and setup at the national championship. Rory McIlroy also openly questions the new-look PGA Tour schedule after the Canadian Open, wondering if the old way of doing things -- pre-LIV -- is the right way to go. Finally, kudos to Bud Cauley for his 1st PGA Tour win after a long path back.

Rory: The PGA Tour was better pre-LIV

My son has been watching “The Office” all the way through — he just finished a week or two ago, now we’re on to “Arrested Development” — and Andy Bernard’s quote from the finale got me again. You know the one about wishing you knew when you were in the good old days instead of finding out long after they were gone?

I thought about that listening to Rory McIlroy today, as he described the difficulty of the RBC Canadian Open trying to fit into what might be the new-look PGA Tour schedule. The reality is that event isn’t going to become a Signature tournament or fit into the top-tier (of two) that CEO Brian Rolapp wants to create. RBC already spends a ton on the Heritage as a Signature event, and they’re not ponying up another ghastly sum to make the Canadian Open, a fabulous and important event, into another Siggy.

So what becomes of that event if it becomes a second-tier event? McIlroy called those events “glorified Korn Ferry events,” as Rolapp wants to prevent top-tier players from competing in those second-level tournaments. He would effectively ruin a national open because top players couldn’t compete, including Canadians like Nick Taylor and Corey Conners. That sounds like a terrible idea.

Frankly, the more thought that’s put into this idea, the more it seems, as McIlroy astutely noted on Tuesday, that the old, pre-LIV Golf way of running the PGA Tour was pretty good. If anything, the demise of LIV as we know it should encourage the PGA Tour to look at shortening the schedule, yes, but also flattening it. Instead of codifying and building a wall between the two tiers we already know exist, bring more tournaments and players into the fold by spreading out the money. If every event is $12 or $15 million instead of eight $20 million tournaments, more markets and players can benefit from the PGA Tour.

A second tier really is going to fail to work in the long haul. It’ll fail because the Korn Ferry Tour is where the up-and-comers play, and they play for $1 million purses today. Will they be needed to fill out Tier 2 events, or are those fields just going to feature players with marginal status that may be out of their depth? The fields will be weak, so the purses will be unsustainable at those rates, eventually falling to or below FedEx Cup Fall levels. Fans won’t be as drawn to these events, both on TV, with tournaments relegated to the dying medium of cable TV, and in person.

The argument is becoming clearer that the old schedule and format — tightened up to some degrees that are necessary — is the better choice. Back to the Future, I guess.

The Links

We have the US Open this week, of course, and there’s no shortage of Golf News Net articles, videos and podcasts covering the national championship. ALL of our US Open content is available here, and all of our US Open fantasy and betting tips and picks are here.

Here are some specific articles I think you’ll be interested in:

Our buddy Josh Gaunt has a great profile on Chad Fribley, who just qualified for the US Senior Open out in Oregon, doing so in his first year of eligibility

Check out our Facebook and Instagram pages. I post lots of stories in graphical form over there, as well as great video from players talking at tournaments — it’s more than I can post on the website!

Also, you can get a free Golf News Net membership and see less ads on the site when you’re logged in! Head on over to the site and create your account, and you won’t see our floating video player, as well as another ad or two.

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