Each week, including this week's 2023 The RSM Classic, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
2023 The RSM Classic history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Ludvig Aberg - 3 - P2 Sanderson Farms, T-13 Shriners Open, T-10 WWT Championship
- Eric Cole - 2 - T-3 Shriners Open, 2nd Zozo Championship
- Austin Cook - 2 - T-10 WWT Championship, T-13 Bermuda Championship
- Chesson Hadley - 2 - T-7 Shriners Open, T-7 WWT Championship
- Kramer Hickok - 2 - T-15 WWT Championship, T-13 Bermuda Championship
- Satoshi Kodaira - 2 - T-12 Zozo Championship, T-13 Bermuda Championship
- Ryan Moore - 2 - T-13 Shriners Open, T-5 Bermuda Championship
- Alex Noren - 2 - T-3 Shriners Open, 2nd Bermuda Championship
- Ryan Palmer - 2 - T-5 WWT Championship, T-8 Bermuda Championship
- Taylor Pendrith - 3 - T-3 Shriners Open, T-15 WWT Championship, T-8 Bermuda Championship
- Justin Suh - 2 - T-10 Zozo Championship, 4th WWT Championship
- Camilo Villegas - 2 - T-2 WWT Championship, WIN Bermuda Championship
- Carl Yuan - 2 - T-6 Sanderson Farms, 4th Bermuda Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years, keeping in mind that this is a new venue we've not seen.
Here are those players:
- Will Gordon - 2
- Brian Harman - 2
- Zach Johnson - 2
- Kevin Kisner - 2
- Patton Kizzire - 2
- Luke List - 2
- Denny McCarthy - 2
- Keith Mitchell - 2
- Matt NeSmith - 2
- Patrick Rodgers - 2
- Webb Simpson - 3
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
This week, we only have one course of data (the host Seaside Course). We don't get data for the Plantation Course. That's OK, though, because three rounds are played on the host course for those who make the cut.
Here's the breakdown on the Seaside:
Tee to Green: 63%
Off the Tee: 17%
Around the Green: 11%
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour.
This week's model
My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.
We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!
We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!
Good luck this week!