Each week, including this week's 2023 The Genesis Invitational, Golf News Net offers PGA Tour betting picks and daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups using our proprietary model, which is weighted toward longer-term performance.
However, we don't just use our model when making these picks. We also need to look at current form, course fits and horses for courses. This data can and should help inform our decision making, including validating things we see in the model. If everything lines up, then a player can become an auto-play. If only some parts of the equation suggest a player will perform well this week, then we may look more tepidly at investing in a player.
2023 The Genesis Invitational history and current PGA Tour finish trends
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Sam Burns - 2 - T-11 AmEx, T-6 Phoenix Open
- Jason Day - 2 - T-7 Farmers Insurance Open, 5th Phoenix Open
- Tony Finau - 2 - T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-14 Phoenix Open
- Rickie Fowler - 2 - T-11 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 Phoenix Open
- Sungjae Im - 2 - T-4 Farmers Insurance Open, T-6 Phoenix Open
- Taylor Montgomery - 2 - T-12 Sony Open, T-5 AmEx
- Taylor Moore - 3 - T-11 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Pebble Beach, T-14 Phoenix Open
- Jon Rahm - 2 - WIN AmEx, T-7 Farmers Insurance Open, 3rd Phoenix Open
- Xander Schauffele - 2 - T-3 AmEx, T-13 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 Phoenix Open
- Scottie Scheffler - 2 - T-11 AmEx, WIN Phoenix Open
- Nick Taylor - 2 - T-7 Sony Open, 2nd Phoenix Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're typically looking at players who finished in the top 15 in this particular event in the last five years.
- Patrick Cantlay - 3
- Tony Finau - 3
- James Hahn - 3
- Max Homa - 3
- Viktor Hovland - 2
- Hideki Matsuyama - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 3
- Jon Rahm - 2
- Chez Reavie - 2
- Patrick Rodgers - 2
- Xander Schauffele - 4
- Adam Scott - 3
- Justin Thomas - 2
Course Fits
A player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
This week's breakout:
Putting: 35%
Tee to Green: 65%
Off the Tee: 15%
Approach: 30%
Around the Green: 20%
Some fits include:
Nick Taylor
Patrick Cantlay
Jordan Spieth
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns
Tyrrell Hatton
Find course fits using our member-only tool which shows this week's course numbers relative to the field at Riviera.
I've also created a new listing which helps you find correlated courses by looking at the course fit breakdown for each recurring host course on the PGA Tour. You might be surprised to see which courses seem to relate to the Riv.
This week's model
Check out the 2023 The Genesis Invitational model, which is available to GNN members.
My model weighs performance over multiple time frames (the last five events, 1 year and 2 years) with different weighting to strokes gained based on quality of competition.
We also have a tool for members which lays out the last field, our model and their results in the last five PGA Tour events and last five years of this week's event. Check it out!
We have also dramatically updated all of our tools with better data presentation, export and more to come soon!
Good luck this week!
