2021 US Open model and fantasy golf rankings

Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 US Open!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it's been a tremendous success. Here's a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

• Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger - No. 21
• RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson - No. 7
• Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 10
• Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 2
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa - No. 11
• the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm - No. 6
• WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas - No. 6
• PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 13
• The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - No. 20
• BMW Championship: Jon Rahm - No. 2
• US Open: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 9
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia - No. 40
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak - No. 17
• Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay - No. 9
• The Masters: Dustin Johnson - No. 7
• Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland - No. 5
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English - No. 13
• Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na - No. 33
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed - No. 8
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka - No. 10
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger - No. 1
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa - No. 30
• WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 17
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 3
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas - No. 3
• Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship: Joel Dahmen - No. 22
• Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth - No. 9
• Masters: Hideki Matsuyama - No. 16
• RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink - No. 75
• Valspar Championship: Sam Burns - No. 77
• Wells Fargo Championship: Rory McIlroy - No. 2
• Charles Schwab Challenge: Jason Kokrak - No. 8
• the Memorial Tournament: Patrick Cantlay - No. 6

Let me walk you through the rubric's tenets and show off this week's results.

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How the rubric works

The reason I'm calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don't think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can't quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That's why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don't believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player's strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player's quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 US Open rankings

You'll see with the rubric that I've listed the top 75, and I will add their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

The US Open is being played this year at a regular Tour stop as host, so we have that advantage in trying to model out the event. Of course, the course is going to be harder and firmer and faster in USGA hands, but we still have a good idea of what should happen.

1. Schauffele, Xander: 1.85
2. Morikawa, Collin: 1.837
3. Rahm, Jon: 1.767
4. McIlroy, Rory: 1.737
5. DeChambeau, Bryson: 1.628
6. Fitzpatrick, Matt: 1.525
7. Finau, Tony: 1.519
8. Simpson, Webb: 1.502
9. Koepka, Brooks: 1.498
10. Reed, Patrick: 1.497
11. Cantlay, Patrick: 1.413
12. Wolff, Matthew: 1.406
13. Hovland, Viktor: 1.394
14. Oosthuizen, Louis: 1.365
15. Johnson, Dustin: 1.339
16. Casey, Paul: 1.326
17. Scheffler, Scottie: 1.282
18. Scott, Adam: 1.261
19. Thomas, Justin: 1.25
20. Matsuyama, Hideki: 1.146
21. Zalatoris, Will: 1.1
22. English, Harris: 1.044
23. Kokrak, Jason: 1.025
24. Rose, Justin: 0.906
25. Kim, Chan: 0.896
26. Berger, Daniel: 0.879
27. Hoffman, Charley: 0.859
28. Woodland, Gary: 0.839
29. Ancer, Abraham: 0.837
30. Bezuidenhout, Christiaan: 0.777
31. Im, Sungjae: 0.766
32. Poulter, Ian: 0.757
33. Niemann, Joaquin: 0.747
34. Hatton, Tyrrell: 0.732
35. Streelman, Kevin: 0.732
36. Burns, Sam: 0.681
37. Conners, Corey: 0.671
38. Spieth, Jordan: 0.656
39. Todd, Brendon: 0.652
40. Wallace, Matt: 0.613
41. Henley, Russell: 0.61
42. Higgo, Garrick: 0.6
43. Laird, Martin: 0.585
44. Griffin, Lanto: 0.581
45. Lowry, Shane: 0.57
46. Cink, Stewart: 0.536
47. Horschel, Billy: 0.523
48. Pendrith, Taylor: 0.5
49. Fleetwood, Tommy: 0.491
50. Van Rooyen, Erik: 0.459
51. Smith, Cameron: 0.421
52. Nienaber, Wilco: 0.4
53. Harman, Brian: 0.375
54. Ortiz, Carlos: 0.346
55. Vegas, Jhonattan: 0.328
56. Steele, Brendan: 0.286
57. Westwood, Lee: 0.28
58. Reavie, Chez: 0.27
59. Palmer, Ryan: 0.256
60. Hadwin, Adam: 0.243
61. Molinari, Francesco: 0.235
62. Watson, Bubba: 0.211
63. Jones, Matt: 0.192
64. Kisner, Kevin: 0.192
65. Johnson, Zach: 0.184
66. Homa, Max: 0.162
67. Barjon, Paul: 0.139
68. Mickelson, Phil: 0.135
69. Hughes, Mackenzie: 0.078
70. Rodgers, Patrick: 0.062
71. Garcia, Sergio: 0.043
72. Detry, Thomas: 0.042
73. Hoag, Bo: 0.035
74. Schwartzel, Charl: 0.027
75. Armitage, Marcus: 0.02