2021 Masters Tournament DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2021 Masters Tournament DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week's 2021 Masters, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

 

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2021 Masters DraftKings picks

Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Corey Conners - 2 - T-3 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-14 Valero Texas Open
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick - 2 - T-11 WGC Concession, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Jason Kokrak - 2 - T-9 WGC Concession, T-8 Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Rory McIlroy - 2 - T-6 WGC Concession, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Jordan Spieth - 2 - T-4 Arnold Palmer Invitational, WIN Valero Texas Open

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.

  • Paul Casey - 2
  • Jason Day - 2
  • Tony Finau - 2
  • Dustin Johnson - 4
  • Brooks Koepka - 3
  • Matt Kuchar - 2
  • Marc Leishman - 2
  • Hideki Matsuyama - 3
  • Rory McIlroy - 4
  • Louis Oosthuizen - 2
  • Jon Rahm - 3
  • Patrick Reed - 2
  • Justin Rose - 3
  • Webb Simpson - 2
  • Jordan Spieth - 3
  • Justin Thomas - 2
  • Bubba Watson - 2

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.

We just don't have the data to do this. But, man, do I wish we could.

Strokes Gained T2G Trends

It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).

Here are the overperformers:

  • Wallace, Matt: 1.53
  • Willett, Danny: 1.419
  • Cantlay, Patrick: 1.407
  • Spieth, Jordan: 1.348
  • Casey, Paul: 1.275
  • Thompson, Michael: 1.181
  • Streb, Robert: 1.166
  • Smith, Cameron: 1.081
  • Morikawa, Collin: 1.055
  • Jones, Matt: 0.94

Here are the underperformers:

  • Swafford, Hudson: -2.078
  • English, Harris: -1.612
  • Johnson, Zach: -1.47
  • Stenson, Henrik: -1.031
  • Thomas, Justin: -0.907
  • Watson, Bubba: -0.839
  • Leishman, Marc: -0.835
  • Rose, Justin: -0.795
  • Kisner, Kevin: -0.663
  • Matsuyama, Hideki: -0.663

We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!

This week's model

Check it out here.

Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!

2021 Masters DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have six players in this group, and I like DJ, Rahm and JT. To a degree, I like Rory, but not at this price.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Morikawa, Spieth, Finau, Simpson, Westwood, Hovland, Berger, Scheffler, Cam Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Paul Casey, Oosthuizen, Joaquin Niemann (tepidly, because of his ball flight), Abe Ancer, Will Zalatoris and Victor Perez.

Below or at $7,000

We're looking for bargains in this range. Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak, Marc Leishman (so cheap), Brian Harman. There are better options (like Ryan Palmer), but Bezuidenhout is a great pivot. Zach Johsnon is getting no love, but I love him to get to the weekend.

A sample Masters DraftKings GPP lineup

  1. Justin Thomas - $10,600
  2. Collin Morikawa - $9,600
  3. Cameron Smith - $8,200
  4. Paul Casey - $7,700
  5. Corey Conners - $6,900
  6. Jason Kokrak - $6,900
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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