Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Valero Texas Open!
Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:
- Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
- RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
- Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
- Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
- Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
- the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
- WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
- PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
- The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
- BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
- US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
- Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
- The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7
- Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland – No. 5
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English – No. 13
- Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na – No. 33
- Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed – No. 8
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka – No. 10
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger – No. 1
- The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa – No. 30
- WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 17
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 3
- The Players Championship: Justin Thomas – No. 3
- Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship: Joel Dahmen – No. 22
Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
How the rubric works
The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.
That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.
That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.
Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.
All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.
2021 Valero Texas Open rankings
You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 75, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.
This event is back after a year off, and it’s the final stop before the Masters. This is a bit of a horse-for-course venue compared to some others on the PGA Tour, but it boils down to ballstriking and above-average distance to set up play.
Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them
|POS||PLAYER||PTS||DK PRICE||DK RANK||ODDS||ODDS RANK|
|6||Varner III, Harold||0.79||7900||23||2000|
|26||Van Rooyen, Erik||0.365||7500||32||2000|
|42||An, Byeong Hun||0.256||7500||32||2000|
|44||Howell III, Charles||0.218||7800||25||2000|