2021 Valero Texas Open model and fantasy golf rankings

Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Valero Texas Open!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it's been a tremendous success. Here's a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

• Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger - No. 21
• RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson - No. 7
• Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson - No. 10
• Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 2
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa - No. 11
• the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm - No. 6
• WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas - No. 6
• PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 13
• The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - No. 20
• BMW Championship: Jon Rahm - No. 2
• US Open: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 9
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia - No. 40
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak - No. 17
• Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay - No. 9
• The Masters: Dustin Johnson - No. 7
• Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland - No. 5
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English - No. 13
• Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na - No. 33
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed - No. 8
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka - No. 10
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger - No. 1
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa - No. 30
• WGC-Workday Championship: Collin Morikawa - No. 17
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau - No. 3
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas - No. 3
• Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship: Joel Dahmen - No. 22

Let me walk you through the rubric's tenets and show off this week's results.

How the rubric works

The reason I'm calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don't think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can't quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That's why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don't believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player's strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player's quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Valero Texas Open rankings

You'll see with the rubric that I've listed the top 75, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This event is back after a year off, and it's the final stop before the Masters. This is a bit of a horse-for-course venue compared to some others on the PGA Tour, but it boils down to ballstriking and above-average distance to set up play.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS	PLAYER	PTS	DK PRICE	DK RANK	ODDS	ODDS RANK
1	Finau, Tony	1.34	11000	1	2000
2	Scheffler, Scottie	1.087	10400	3	2000
3	Conners, Corey	0.954	9500	6	2000
4	Ancer, Abraham	0.887	9700	5	2000
5	Matsuyama, Hideki	0.856	10100	4	2000
6	Varner III, Harold	0.79	7900	23	2000
7	Tringale, Cameron	0.745	9300	8	2000
8	NeSmith, Matthew	0.616	7100	46	2000
9	Spieth, Jordan	0.585	10700	2	2000
10	Burns, Sam	0.569	8000	21	2000
11	Kirk, Chris	0.556	8600	15	2000
12	Furyk, Jim	0.549	6800	62	2000
13	Davis, Cameron	0.539	8800	13	2000
14	Griffin, Lanto	0.517	8700	14	2000
15	Moore, Ryan	0.482	7900	23	2000
16	Huh, John	0.453	7400	35	2000
17	Hoffman, Charley	0.44	9200	9	2000
18	Steele, Brendan	0.427	9100	10	2000
19	McCarthy, Denny	0.415	7300	38	2000
20	Hadwin, Adam	0.411	8300	18	2000
21	Seiffert, Chase	0.404	7100	46	2000
22	Woodland, Gary	0.391	7600	29	2000
23	Ghim, Doug	0.385	7300	38	2000
24	Norlander, Henrik	0.378	7100	46	2000
25	Straka, Sepp	0.365	7300	38	2000
26	Van Rooyen, Erik	0.365	7500	32	2000
27	Wallace, Matt	0.363	7700	27	2000
28	Snedeker, Brandt	0.362	6600	75	2000
29	Vegas, Jhonattan	0.358	7400	35	2000
30	Lee, Danny	0.352	6500	82	2000
31	Harrington, Padraig	0.346	6200	107	2000
32	Fowler, Rickie	0.343	8100	20	2000
33	Munoz, Sebastian	0.305	7600	29	2000
34	Glover, Lucas	0.289	7300	38	2000
35	Ventura, Kristoffer	0.281	6400	90	2000
36	Schenk, Adam	0.28	6800	62	2000
37	Redman, Doc	0.278	6600	75	2000
38	Perez, Pat	0.267	6900	56	2000
39	Bradley, Keegan	0.265	8400	17	2000
40	Ryder, Sam	0.264	7400	35	2000
41	Palmer, Ryan	0.262	9400	7	2000
42	An, Byeong Hun	0.256	7500	32	2000
43	Hagy, Brandon	0.232	6700	68	2000
44	Howell III, Charles	0.218	7800	25	2000
45	Villegas, Camilo	0.217	6400	90	2000
46	Chappell, Kevin	0.196	6900	56	2000
47	Martin, Ben	0.193	6600	75	2000
48	Putnam, Andrew	0.174	7600	29	2000
49	Kuchar, Matt	0.172	9000	11	2000
50	Rodgers, Patrick	0.159	6800	62	2000
51	Schwartzel, Charl	0.159	6700	68	2000
52	Kelly, Jerry	0.15	6100	117	2000
53	Higgs, Harry	0.132	7100	46	2000
54	Kim, Michael	0.126	6100	117	2000
55	Gordon, Will	0.121	6800	62	2000
56	Laird, Martin	0.121	7100	46	2000
57	Taylor, Nick	0.114	6900	56	2000
58	Hoge, Tom	0.093	7000	51	2000
59	Grace, Branden	0.069	7800	25	2000
60	Dahmen, Joel	0.063	8200	19	2000
61	Kizzire, Patton	0.055	7200	42	2000
62	Willett, Danny	0.054	7700	27	2000
63	Hoag, Bo	0.044	6400	90	2000
64	Sabbatini, Rory	0.015	6900	56	2000
65	Bhatia, Akshay	0.011	6400	90	2000
66	Lashley, Nate	0.002	6900	56	2000
67	Eckroat, Austin	0	6300	98	2000
68	Stallings, Scott	-0.001	6600	75	2000
69	Wise, Aaron	-0.012	8000	21	2000
70	Percy, Cameron	-0.015	6600	75	2000
71	Johnson, Zach	-0.035	8500	16	2000
72	Bryan, Wesley	-0.037	6300	98	2000
73	Merritt, Troy	-0.039	6200	107	2000
74	Sloan, Roger	-0.039	6700	68	2000
75	Garnett, Brice	-0.045	7000	51	2000