Each week, including this week's 2021 Valero Texas Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Rafael Campos - 2 - T-3 Puerto Rico Open, T-2 Corales Puntacana
- Brice Garnett - 2 - T-5 Puerto Rico Open, T-9 Corales Puntacana
- Sam Ryder - 2 - T-8 The Honda Classic, T-2 Corales Puntacana
- Chase Seiffert - 2 - T-15 Puerto Rico Open, T-3 The Honda Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.
- Kevin Chappell - 2
- Branden Grace - 2
- Charley Hoffman - 3
- Chris Kirk - 3
- Matt Kuchar - 2
- Ryan Moore - 2
- Ryan Palmer - 3
- Brendan Steele - 2
- Jimmy Walker - 3
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Here's our breakdown:
Putting: 29%
Tee to Green: 71%
Off the Tee: 17%
Approach: 35%
Around the Green: 19%
Some fits include:
Lucas Glover
Rory Sabbatini
Abraham Ancer
Matthew NeSmith
Chris Kirk
Sam Ryder
Joel Dahmen
Sam Burns
Cameron Tringale
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Willett, Danny: 1.689
- Putnam, Andrew: 1.203
- Stadler, Kevin: 1.127
- Spieth, Jordan: 1.119
- Finau, Tony: 1.087
- Lewis, Tom: 1.024
- Ryder, Sam: 0.895
- Sloan, Roger: 0.837
- Chappell, Kevin: 0.781
- Lashley, Nate: 0.772
Here are the underperformers:
- Spaun, J.J.: -2.675
- Gligic, Michael: -2.078
- Bryan, Wesley: -1.993
- Stenson, Henrik: -1.808
- McDowell, Graeme: -1.592
- Johnson, Zach: -1.527
- Ventura, Kristoffer: -1.408
- Watney, Nick: -1.394
- Hadley, Chesson: -1.341
- Kang, Sung: -1.294
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week's model
Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 Valero Texas Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I like Spieth and, to a degree, Scheffler. Finau is playing great, but he's a budget-buster.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Conners, Palmer, Tringale, Hoffman, Steele, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Joel Dahmen.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Branden Grace, Danny Willett, Andrew Putnam, Seb Munoz, Sam Ryder, Denny McCarthy, Patton Kizzire, Matt NeSmith.
Below or at $7,000
We're looking for bargains in this range. Russell Knox, Brice Garnett, Rafa Campos, Kevin Chappell, Sabbatini, .
A sample Valero Texas Open DraftKings GPP lineup
- Jordan Spieth - $10,700
- Ryan Palmer - $9,400
- Chris Kirk - $8,600
- Matthew NeSmith - $7,100
- Brice Garnett - $7,000
- Kevin Chappell - $6,900
