2021 The Genesis Invitational model and fantasy golf rankings
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2021 The Genesis Invitational model and fantasy golf rankings



Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 The Genesis Invitational!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
  • The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7
  • Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland – No. 5
  • Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English – No. 13
  • Sony Open in Hawaii: Kevin Na – No. 33
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed – No. 8
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka – No. 10
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger – No. 1

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 The Genesis Invitational rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 75, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week at Riviera should be a lot of fun. It’s the best field of the year so far, and they’re playing one of my favorite courses. Our model doesn’t emphasize course history perhaps as much as others, so that’s why Dustin Johnson isn’t No. 1. He’s the best Riv player in the field statistically. Also, the long-term nature of the model messes with DJ a bit.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 McIlroy, Rory 1.868 10500 3 1400 3
2 Schauffele, Xander 1.856 9900 6 1400 3
3 Rahm, Jon 1.836 10400 4 1200 2
4 Thomas, Justin 1.795 10700 2 1400 3
5 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.673 10100 5 1800 7
6 Cantlay, Patrick 1.631 9600 8 1400 3
7 Zalatoris, Will 1.486 8300 21 8000 24
8 Johnson, Dustin 1.325 11300 1 550 1
9 Scott, Adam 1.249 9000 14 3500 10
10 Morikawa, Collin 1.197 9500 9 3500 10
11 Henley, Russell 1.151 7800 27 8000 24
12 Finau, Tony 1.128 9300 11 2500 8
13 Koepka, Brooks 1.033 9700 7 2500 8
14 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.033 9100 13 4000 15
15 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 0.963 7600 31 6000 20
16 Hovland, Viktor 0.951 8700 17 3500 10
17 Berger, Daniel 0.925 9400 10 3500 10
18 Niemann, Joaquin 0.794 8800 16 4000 15
19 Scheffler, Scottie 0.732 8500 19 5000 18
20 Griffin, Lanto 0.704 7400 39 12500 38
21 Burns, Sam 0.692 7400 39 10000 31
22 Watson, Bubba 0.653 8900 15 4000 15
23 Kokrak, Jason 0.616 8000 24 10000 31
24 Norlander, Henrik 0.595 7400 39 12500 38
25 Woodland, Gary 0.577 7600 31 10000 31
26 Varner III, Harold 0.567 6700 74 15000 48
27 Fowler, Rickie 0.56 7500 35 12500 38
28 Garcia, Sergio 0.555 7700 29 8000 24
29 Gooch, Talor 0.55 7200 49 12500 38
30 Homa, Max 0.543 8200 22 6000 20
31 Harman, Brian 0.502 7400 39 12500 38
32 Streelman, Kevin 0.496 7400 39 12500 38
33 Davis, Cameron 0.495 7500 35 10000 31
34 Furyk, Jim 0.494 6400 89 20000 68
35 Ancer, Abraham 0.487 7900 25 8000 24
36 Hoffman, Charley 0.46 7300 44 15000 48
37 Lee, Danny 0.453 6000 114 50000 103
38 Tringale, Cameron 0.444 7600 31 10000 31
39 Na, Kevin 0.426 7900 25 8000 24
40 Reavie, Chez 0.393 7000 59 15000 48
41 Ghim, Doug 0.384 6900 64 15000 48
42 Dahmen, Joel 0.372 6900 64 20000 68
43 Todd, Brendon 0.369 7100 54 12500 38
44 Smith, Cameron 0.362 8400 20 8000 24
45 Bryan, Wesley 0.359 6100 107 30000 94
46 Conners, Corey 0.344 7500 35 10000 31
47 Kuchar, Matt 0.335 7200 49 12500 38
48 Hubbard, Mark 0.318 6300 94 25000 81
49 Redman, Doc 0.312 6600 79 20000 68
50 Rodgers, Patrick 0.279 6700 74 20000 68
51 Straka, Sepp 0.277 6800 69 20000 68
52 Spieth, Jordan 0.275 9200 12 3500 10
53 NeSmith, Matthew 0.256 6900 64 15000 48
54 Hadwin, Adam 0.255 7300 44 15000 48
55 Piercy, Scott 0.246 6600 79 25000 81
56 Stuard, Brian 0.241 6400 89 30000 94
57 Ortiz, Carlos 0.237 7800 27 6000 20
58 Snedeker, Brandt 0.233 6600 79 25000 81
59 Hahn, James 0.219 7500 35 12500 38
60 Poston, J.T. 0.204 7300 44 15000 48
61 Munoz, Sebastian 0.201 6800 69 15000 48
62 List, Luke 0.177 7300 44 15000 48
63 Cook, Austin 0.156 6100 107 30000 94
64 Taylor, Nick 0.142 6900 64 25000 81
65 Glover, Lucas 0.131 6400 89 25000 81
66 Wolff, Matthew 0.131 8100 23 6000 20
67 Hoge, Tom 0.13 6800 69 20000 68
68 Perez, Pat 0.109 6400 89 25000 81
69 Howell III, Charles 0.083 6800 69 15000 48
70 Hughes, Mackenzie 0.082 6600 79 20000 68
71 Steele, Brendan 0.082 7100 54 15000 48
72 Merritt, Troy 0.078 6300 95 30000 94
73 Frittelli, Dylan 0.024 7000 59 20000 68
74 Werenski, Richy 0.021 6500 84 25000 81
75 Armour, Ryan 0.013 6300 96 50000 103
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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