Each week, including this week's 2021 Valspar Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 Valspar Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Corey Conners - 3 - T-14 Valero Texas Open, T-8 Masters, T-4 RBC Heritage
- Emiliano Grillo - 2 - T-6 Corales Puntacana, 2nd RBC Heritage
- Russell Henley - 2 - T-3 The Honda Classic, T-9 RBC Heritage
- Chris Kirk - 2 - T-6 Valero Texas Open, T-7 RBC Heritage
- Denny McCarthy - 2 - T-3 The Honda Classic, T-13 RBC Heritage
- Sam Ryder - 2 - T-8 The Honda Classic, T-2 Corales Puntacana
- Cameron Tringale - 2 - T-13 The Honda Classic, T-9 Valero Texas Open/li>
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.
- Paul Casey - 2 wins
- Adam Hadwin - 2
- Charles Howell III - 2
- Jason Kokrak - 3
- Ryan Moore - 2
- Louis Oosthuizen - 2
- Patrick Reed - 2
- Charl Schwartzel - 2
- Henrik Stenson - 3
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Here's our breakdown this week:
Putting: 28%
Tee to Green: 72%
Over the Top: 17%
Approach: 40%
Around the Green: 15%
Some fits include:
Tyrrell Hatton
Ryan Armour
Dustin Johnson
Bubba Watson
Kevin Streelman
Russell Knox
Abraham Ancer
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Oosthuizen, Louis: 1.579
- Stadler, Kevin: 1.461
- Lewis, Tom: 1.02
- Hagy, Brandon: 0.978
- Willett, Danny: 0.976
- Merritt, Troy: 0.962
- Choi, K.J.: 0.865
- Tringale, Cameron: 0.829
- Mahan, Hunter: 0.821
- McCarthy, Denny: 0.805
Here are the underperformers:
- Lovemark, Jamie: -2.785
- Gligic, Michael: -2.751
- Murray, Grayson: -2.58
- Watney, Nick: -2.284
- Johnson, Zach: -2.197
- Shelton, Robby: -2.004
- Baddeley, Aaron: -1.829
- Redman, Doc: -1.622
- Watson, Bubba: -1.503
- Spaun, J.J.: -1.42
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week's model
Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 Valspar Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I like JT, DJ, Reed and Casey, with Casey offering really good value.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Scheffler, Conners, Oosthuizen, Hatton, Rose, Kokrak, Hoffman, Grillo and Kirk.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Streelman, CH3, Adam Hadwin (horse-for-course play), Cam Davis, Denny McCarthy (playing well), Sam Horsfield, Doug Ghim, Matthew NeSmith. Fliers would be Charl Schwartzel and Russell Knox.
Below or at $7,000
We're looking for bargains in this range. Rasmus Hojgaard, James Hahn, Scott Piercy are worth a look.
A sample Valspar Championship DraftKings GPP lineup
- Tyrrell Hatton - $9,400
- Jason Kokrak - $8,700
- Emiliano Grillo - $8,300
- Chris Kirk - $8,200
- Charles Howell III - $7,700
- Denny McCarthy - $7,500
