2021 The Honda Classic DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2021 The Honda Classic DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week’s 2021 The Honda Classic, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

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2021 The Honda Classic DraftKings picks

Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Charley Hoffman – 2 – T-7 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Andrew Putnam – 3 – T-7 Phoenix Open, T-5 Puerto Rico Open, T-4 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.

  • Byeong Hun An – 2
  • Wyndham Clark – 2
  • Rickie Fowler – 3
  • Luke List – 2
  • Graeme McDowell – 2
  • Adam Scott – 3
  • Brendan Steele – 3

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.

Here’s the breakout:

Putting: 29%
Tee to Green: 81%
Off the Tee: 16%
Approach: 39%
Around the Green: 26%

Some fits include:

Keith Mitchell
Lucas Glover
Dylan Frittelli
Adam Scott
Joaquin Niemann
Stewart Cink
Kevin Streelman
Russell Knox

Strokes Gained T2G Trends

It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).

Here are the overperformers:

  • Kodaira, Satoshi: 1.058
  • Lewis, Tom: 1.032
  • Kizzire, Patton: 0.975
  • Wallace, Matt: 0.872
  • Stallings, Scott: 0.832
  • Sloan, Roger: 0.822
  • Oppenheim, Rob: 0.774
  • Herman, Jim: 0.771
  • Davis, Cameron: 0.744
  • Kraft, Kelly: 0.717

Here are the underperformers:

  • Chappell, Kevin: -2.347
  • Gligic, Michael: -2.003
  • Villegas, Camilo: -1.676
  • McDowell, Graeme: -1.674
  • Cabrera Bello, Rafael: -1.491
  • Spaun, J.J.: -1.453
  • Stenson, Henrik: -1.358
  • Ventura, Kristoffer: -1.357
  • Schenk, Adam: -1.205
  • Hadley, Chesson: -1.065

We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!

This week’s model

Check it out here.

Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!

2021 The Honda Classic DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have five players in this group, and I like all five, though Berger, Westwood and Niemann are my favorites. Scott is a horse-for-course pick.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 16 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Henley, Lowry (tepidly), Tringale (a lot), Matt Wallace, Brendan Steele, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Ben An, Wyndham Clark and, to a small degree, Dylan Frittelli.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Russell Knox, Streelman, Varner, Michael Thompson, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Jones, Jhonny Vegas, Matt NeSmith and Adam Long.

Below or at $7,000

We’re looking for bargains in this range. Jim Furyk, Lucas Glover, Sepp Straka, Rafa Campos.

A sample The Honda Classic DraftKings GPP lineup

  1. Cameron Tringale – $9,100
  2. Brendan Steele – $8,700
  3. Cameron Davis – $8,600
  4. Wyndham Clark – $8,000
  5. Patton Kizzire – $7,500
  6. Matt Jones – $7,400
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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