Each week, including this week’s 2021 The Genesis Invitational, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
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2021 The Genesis Invitational DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2 – 2nd CareerBuilder Challenge, 2nd Pebble Beach
- Paul Casey – 3 – T-8 American Express, WIN Dubai Desert Classic, T-5 Pebble Beach
- Cameron Davis – 2 – T-3 American Express, T-14 Pebble Beach
- Tony Finau – 2 – T-4 American Express, T-2 Farmers Insurance Open
- Charley Hoffman – 2 – T-14 Sony Open, T-7 Pebble Beach
- Peter Malnati – 2 – T-14 Sony Open, T-10 Farmers Insurance Open
- Francesco Molinari – 2 – T-8 American Express, T-10 Farmers Insurance Open
- Henrik Norlander – 2 – T-12 The American Express, T-2 Farmers Insurance Open
- Carlos Ortiz – 2 – T-14 Sony Open, T-4 Phoneix Open
- Jon Rahm – 2 – T-7 Farmers Insurance Open, T-13 Phoenix Open
- Xander Schaufeele – 2 – T-2 Farmers Insurance Open, T-2 Phoenix Open
- Jordan Spieth – 2 – T-4 Phoenix Open, T-3 Pebble Beach
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2
- Bryson DeChambeau – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- James Hahn – 2
- JB Holmes – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 4
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Martin Laird – 2
- Marc Leishman – 2
- Hideki Matsuyama – 3
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Kevin Na – 2
- Chez Reavie – 2
- Adam Scott – 4
- Justin Thomas – 2
- Bubba Watson – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
With just one of the courses rated, I think we actually can model this week since we normally only have one course rated.
Here’s our breakout:
Tee to Green: 63%
Off the Tee: 13%
Around the Green: 13%
Some fits include:
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Herman, Jim: 1.378
- Spieth, Jordan: 1.262
- Fowler, Rickie: 1.213
- Niemann, Joaquin: 1.116
- Lee, Danny: 1.073
- Leishman, Marc: 1.025
- Malnati, Peter: 1.016
- Bradley, Keegan: 0.967
- Hoag, Bo: 0.932
- Johnson, Dustin: 0.919
- Conners, Corey: 0.873
Here are the underperformers:
- Fitzpatrick, Matthew: -1.976
- Augenstein, John: -1.488
- Walker, Jimmy: -1.426
- Munoz, Sebastian: -0.876
- Dahmen, Joel: -0.857
- Laird, Martin: -0.836
- Harrington, Scott: -0.83
- Redman, Doc: -0.776
- Grace, Branden: -0.757
- Duncan, Tyler: -0.751
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 The Genesis Invitational DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I like all five. DJ is the best player in the world by far. JT and Rory are playing well enough. Rahm is surging. Bryson was resting.
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Xander, Finau, Matsuyama, Scott, Hovland, Leishman, Cam Smith, Zalatoris, Homa.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Henley, Ortiz, Molinari, Fowler (yes, Fowler), Hahn, Conners, Cam Davis, Lanto, Sam Burns, Norlander. Consider Mav coming off his best finish. Russell Knox is hitting a lot of greens.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, but we don’t have many this week. Kyle Stanley and Matt Jones are guys to like. Matt NeSmith is learning this tour quickly. The model likes HV3. I like Doug Ghim, though he doesn’t fare well against strong fields.
A sample The Genesis Invitational DraftKings GPP lineup
- Adam Scott – $9,000
- Viktor Hovland – $8,700
- Marc Leishman – $8,600
- Max Homa – $8,200
- Russell Henley – $7,800
- Cameron Davis – $7,500