2021 Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2021 Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week’s 2021 Farmers Insurance Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

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2021 Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings picks

Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Harris English – 3 – T-6 RSM Classic, T-5 OHL Classic, WIN Tournament of Champions
  • Billy Horschel – 2 – T-5 OHL Classic, T-7 Sony Open
  • Sungjae Im – 2 – T-5 Tournament of Champions, T-12 The American Express
  • Carlos Ortiz – 2 – T-8 OHL Classic, T-14 Sony Open
  • Rory Sabbatini – 2 – T-12 RSM Classic, T-12 The American Express

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.

  • Keegan Bradley – 2
  • Jason Day – 3
  • Harris English – 2
  • Tony Finau – 4
  • JB Holmes – 2
  • Billy Horschel – 2
  • Charles Howell III – 2
  • Marc Leishman – 2
  • Hideki Matsuyama – 2
  • Rory McIlroy – 2
  • Ryan Palmer – 2
  • Jon Rahm – 3
  • Patrick Reed – 2
  • Patrick Rodgers – 2
  • Brandt Snedeker – 2
  • Gary Woodland – 2

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.

With strokes gained from just one course, though, we can’t really use course fit.

Strokes Gained T2G Trends

It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).

Here are the overperformers:

  • Senden, John: 2.253
  • Watson, Bubba: 1.554
  • Stadler, Kevin: 1.529
  • Trainer, Martin: 1.407
  • Malnati, Peter: 1.352
  • Molinari, Francesco: 1.236
  • Suh, Justin: 1.176
  • Bramlett, Joseph: 1.105
  • Hoag, Bo: 1.063
  • Percy, Cameron: 1.03

Here are the underperformers:

  • Anderson, Mark: -1.428
  • Brehm, Ryan: -2.342
  • Hearn, David: -1.369
  • Holmes, J.B.: -2.83
  • Mickelson, Phil: -2.039
  • Murray, Grayson: -2.092
  • Stanley, Kyle: -1.241
  • Walker, Jimmy: -1.422
  • Watney, Nick: -1.573
  • Woodland, Gary: -2.019

We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!

This week’s model

Check it out here.

Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!

2021 Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have five players in this group, and I like Rahm, Rory and Finau most. Reed is a good pivot, as he ended a six-month streak of made cuts last week.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. My favorites are Harris, Sungjae, Hovland, Matsuyama, Wolff (!), Bubba, Leishman and Ryan Palmer.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Cam Davis, Molinari, Kokrak, Gooch, Grillo, Conners, Ortiz and Sabo. Woodland isn’t quite worth it yet, though he seems poised to break back out.

Below or at $7,000

We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. The model likes HV3 and Jhonny Vegas, and I like Kristoffer Ventura and Tom Hoge.

A sample Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings GPP lineup

  1. Tony Finau – $10.700
  2. Harris English – $9,800
  3. Bubba Watson – $8,800
  4. Sepp Straka – $7,100
  5. Harold Varner III – $7,000
  6. Kristoffer Ventura – $6,600
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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