2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions model and fantasy golf rankings
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2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions model and fantasy golf rankings



Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
  • The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7
  • Mayakoba Golf Classic: Viktor Hovland – No. 5

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2021, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the full field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This is an interesting week at Kapalua. Lots of new names and a 42-player field, with a bunch of the new names fitting the course well. Despite bombers being set up better for success, a variety of players have won here over the years.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Rahm, Jon 1.713 10400 3 800 2
2 Thomas, Justin 1.693 10700 2 800 2
3 Schauffele, Xander 1.583 10000 5 1000 4
4 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.558 10200 4 1000 4
5 Johnson, Dustin 1.467 11000 1 600 1
6 Cantlay, Patrick 1.426 9800 6 2000 7
7 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.42 9000 10 2000 7
8 Scott, Adam 1.337 8100 19 5000 19
9 Simpson, Webb 1.281 9400 8 2000 7
10 Finau, Tony 1.149 8900 11 2000 7
11 Hovland, Viktor 1.057 9200 9 2000 7
12 Morikawa, Collin 1.052 8800 12 3000 12
13 English, Harris 1.003 8700 13 3000 12
14 Berger, Daniel 0.966 8600 14 3000 12
15 Reed, Patrick 0.947 9600 7 1600 6
16 Scheffler, Scottie 0.763 8500 15 3500 15
17 Niemann, Joaquin 0.694 8300 17 4000 16
18 Griffin, Lanto 0.623 6900 31 12500 31
19 Kisner, Kevin 0.543 7800 22 8000 23
20 Horschel, Billy 0.519 7600 24 8000 23
21 Smith, Cameron 0.506 8400 16 4000 16
22 Ancer, Abraham 0.501 8000 20 6000 21
23 Kokrak, Jason 0.441 7300 27 8000 23
24 Garcia, Sergio 0.42 7700 23 6000 21
25 Im, Sungjae 0.418 8200 18 4000 16
26 Hughes, Mackenzie 0.358 6800 32 12500 31
27 Na, Kevin 0.323 6700 33 12500 31
28 Ortiz, Carlos 0.309 7100 29 10000 27
29 Todd, Brendon 0.298 7200 28 10000 27
30 Taylor, Nick 0.251 6200 38 30000 36
31 Palmer, Ryan 0.08 7000 30 10000 27
32 Munoz, Sebastian 0.042 7500 25 10000 27
33 Leishman, Marc -0.134 7400 26 8000 23
34 Werenski, Richy -0.145 6000 41 30000 36
35 Champ, Cameron -0.217 7900 21 5000 19
36 Cink, Stewart -0.225 6600 34 20000 34
37 Swafford, Hudson -0.269 6100 39 30000 36
38 Thompson, Michael -0.287 6500 35 30000 36
39 Laird, Martin -0.316 6400 36 20000 34
40 Landry, Andrew -0.358 6300 37 30000 36
41 Streb, Robert -0.545 6000 41 30000 36
42 Gay, Brian -0.559 6100 39 30000 36
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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