2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week’s 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

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2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings picks

Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Harris English – 2 – T-10 CJ Cup, T-6 RSM Classic
  • Viktor Hovland – 2 – T-12 CJ Cup, T-15 Houston Open
  • Sebastian Munoz – 2 – T-9 CJ Cup, T-14 Zozo Championship
  • Justin Thomas – 3 – T-12 CJ Cup, T-2 Zozo Championship, T-4 Masters

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.

  • Daniel Berger – 2
  • Patrick Cantlay – 2
  • Cameron Champ – 2
  • Dustin Johnson – 5
  • Marc Leishman – 2
  • Hideki Matsuyama – 2
  • Jon Rahm – 3
  • Patrick Reed – 3
  • Xander Schauffele – 2
  • Justin Thomas – 3
  • Gary Woodland – 2

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.

This week, here’s our breakdown:

Putting: 33%
Tee to Green: 67%
Off the Tee: 24%
Approach: 30%
Around the Green: 13%

Some fits include:
Patrick Cantlay
Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm
Stewart Cink
Sebastian Munoz
Abraham Ancer
Adam Scott
Sungjae Im
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau

Strokes Gained T2G Trends

It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).

Here are the overperformers:

  • Dechambeau, Bryson: 2.191
  • Johnson, Dustin: 1.699
  • Laird, Martin: 1.024
  • Champ, Cameron: 0.701
  • Ortiz, Carlos: 0.686
  • Rahm, Jon: 0.572
  • Schauffele, Xander: 0.501
  • Hovland, Viktor: 0.5
  • Finau, Tony: 0.485
  • Palmer, Ryan: 0.469

Here are the underperformers:

  • Swafford, Hudson: -1.394
  • Werenski, Richy: -1.217
  • Taylor, Nick: -0.976
  • Berger, Daniel: -0.874
  • Todd, Brendon: -0.665
  • Thompson, Michael: -0.527
  • Leishman, Marc: -0.505
  • Gay, Brian: -0.496
  • Scott, Adam: -0.45
  • Hughes, Mackenzie: -0.442

We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!

This week’s model

Check it out here.

Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!

2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have five players in this group, and I like everybody, really. Rahm could be a concern with new equipment, but I think that’s overblown. Xander coming off COVID could also be a concern. Bryson could be a problem if it blows hard with his high ball.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. My A-tier picks are Cantlay, Reed, Simpson, Matsuyama, Finau, English, Berger, Cam Smith, Sungjae and Abe Ancer (OK, that’s a lot of them). Let’s boil it down to Cantlay, Reed, Simpson, Berger and Sungjae.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Cam Champ likes this course but is underperforming overall. Billy Horschel is a horse play. Munoz could be great, assuming he hangs onto end-of-2020 form. Marc Leishman could be a huge value this week.

Below or at $7,000

We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Lanto Griffin always outperforms at this price point. Stewart Cink loves this event. I could bless playing Nick Taylor.

A sample Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings GPP lineup

  1. Dustin Johnson – $11,000
  2. Xander Schauffele – $10,000
  3. Adam Scott – $8,100
  4. Marc Leishma – $7,400
  5. Lanto Griffin – $6,900
  6. Stewart Cink – $6,600
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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