2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic model and fantasy golf rankings



Welcome to my weekly fantasy golf model for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic!

Beginning in 2020, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9
  • The Masters: Dustin Johnson – No. 7

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields. In the fall of 2020, I included specific weighting of strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained against the field strength that week, creating a range of comparison to see how players do against particular competition.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 60, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This is an interesting week in Mayakoba. We have a short golf course and a bunch of top players that are seeing this tournament for the first time. Naturally, they rank well because they gain strokes everywhere, but will they like a short-ish course that takes away the advantage of their length?

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Thomas, Justin 1.735 11400 1 650 1
2 Finau, Tony 1.15 10700 3 1800 4
3 Berger, Daniel 1.111 10400 4 2000 5
4 Koepka, Brooks 1.083 11000 2 1000 2
5 Hovland, Viktor 0.978 9700 7 2000 5
6 English, Harris 0.961 10100 5 1600 3
7 Zalatoris, Will 0.8 9200 10 3000 10
8 Henley, Russell 0.795 9300 9 2500 8
9 Woodland, Gary 0.741 8200 20 6000 19
10 Varner III, Harold 0.729 7800 26 6000 19
11 Ancer, Abraham 0.64 9900 6 2000 5
12 Conners, Corey 0.608 9000 12 3000 10
13 Fowler, Rickie 0.594 9500 8 2500 8
14 Horschel, Billy 0.567 8800 14 4000 13
15 Niemann, Joaquin 0.552 9100 11 3500 12
16 Harman, Brian 0.51 8400 18 6000 19
17 An, Byeong Hun 0.499 7600 31 10000 33
18 Sabbatini, Rory 0.481 7600 31 10000 33
19 Dahmen, Joel 0.474 8000 22 8000 25
20 Glover, Lucas 0.389 7200 45 12500 43
21 Streelman, Kevin 0.383 7500 34 8000 25
22 Straka, Sepp 0.381 7600 31 10000 33
23 McCarthy, Denny 0.345 7400 37 6000 19
24 Hadwin, Adam 0.326 7200 45 10000 33
25 Hubbard, Mark 0.321 6800 63 20000 62
26 Vegas, Jhonattan 0.309 6700 68 20000 62
27 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.305 6700 68 20000 62
28 McNealy, Maverick 0.303 7200 45 12500 43
29 Norlander, Henrik 0.294 7000 53 15000 52
30 Huh, John 0.291 7400 37 10000 33
31 Stuard, Brian 0.287 6900 58 12500 43
32 Piercy, Scott 0.287 7900 24 8000 25
33 Ghim, Doug 0.254 7400 37 10000 33
34 Todd, Brendon 0.241 8600 16 5000 15
35 Reavie, Chez 0.233 7700 28 8000 25
36 Wise, Aaron 0.226 7400 37 10000 33
37 Diaz, Roberto 0.219 6300 94 30000 87
38 Gordon, Will 0.204 6800 63 15000 52
39 Schenk, Adam 0.198 6900 58 15000 52
40 Homa, Max 0.197 6800 63 20000 62
41 Ortiz, Carlos 0.183 8900 13 4000 13
42 Munoz, Sebastian 0.177 8500 17 5000 15
43 Percy, Cameron 0.175 6400 87 25000 77
44 Howell III, Charles 0.159 8100 21 5000 15
45 Hoge, Tom 0.156 6800 63 20000 62
46 Noren, Alex 0.136 7900 24 8000 25
47 Kizzire, Patton 0.136 8000 22 8000 25
48 Grillo, Emiliano 0.126 8300 19 6000 19
49 Hoffman, Charley 0.125 7300 41 12500 43
50 Bryan, Wesley 0.121 6600 74 25000 77
51 Bradley, Keegan 0.108 7700 28 8000 25
52 Kirk, Chris 0.107 7500 34 10000 33
53 Perez, Pat 0.08 7300 41 10000 33
54 Cook, Austin 0.068 7300 41 12500 43
55 Wagner, Johnson 0.049 6200 102 50000 107
56 Leishman, Marc 0.049 8700 15 5000 15
57 Hadley, Chesson 0.046 7200 45 20000 62
58 Baker, Chris 0.036 6100 110 50000 107
59 Stanley, Kyle 0.008 7100 49 12500 43
60 Malnati, Peter 0.008 7300 41 10000 33
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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