Each week, including this week’s 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
To see our hidden picks and weekly model, join Forebucks!
For just $50 for 12 months or for free with a qualifying sportsbook deposit, Forebucks members get access to our winning weekly PGA Tour event model, in-depth DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends, as well exclusive members-only content.
You’ll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.
2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Corey Conners – 3 – T-8 Zozo Championship, T-10 Masters, T-10 RSM Classic
- Harris English – 2 – T-10 CJ Cup, T-6 RSM Classic
- Russell Henley – 2 – T-3 CJ Cup, T-4 Zozo Championship
- Viktor Hovland – 2 – T-12 CJ Cup, T-15 Houston Open
- Patton Kizzire – 2 – T-11 Houston Open, T-10 RSM Classic
- Sebastian Munoz – 2 – T-9 CJ Cup, T-14 Zozo Championship
- Justin Thomas – 3 – T-12 CJ Cup, T-2 Zozo Championship, T-4 Masters
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.
- Abraham Ancer – 2
- Keegan Bradley – 2
- Brice Garnett – 3
- Emiliano Grillo – 3
- Charles Howell III – 2
- Russell Knox – 3
- Pat Perez – 3
- Scott Piercy – 2
- Chez Reavie – 2
- JJ Spaun – 2
- Harold Varner III – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
This week, we can’t model because the PGA Tour doesn’t track ShotLink data at El Camaleon.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- An, Byeong Hun: 1.75
- Malnati, Peter: 1.265
- Sloan, Roger: 1.16
- Cook, Austin: 1.028
- Whaley, Vincent: 0.965
- Anderson, Mark: 0.963
- Trahan, D.J.: 0.952
- Ghim, Doug: 0.945
- Spaun, J.J.: 0.931
- Bradley, Keegan: 0.923
Here are the underperformers:
- Woodland, Gary: -2.375
- Wagner, Johnson: -2.102
- Kang, Sung: -1.604
- Gibson, Rhein: -1.55
- Gay, Brian: -1.491
- Aphibarnrat, Kiradech: -1.36
- Ryder, Sam: -1.26
- Stricker, Steve: -1.23
- Lee, Kyoung-Hoon: -1.137
- Homa, Max: -1.072
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I like JT, Finau and English.
We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. My A-tier picks are Ancer, Hovland, Henley, Zalatoris, Conners, Munoz, Grillo (horse for course), CH3 and Patton Kizzire.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Piercy, HV3, Knox, An, Denny, Doug Ghim (does well against bad fields), Straka, Sabbatini.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Brice Garnett (horse for course), Brian Stuard, Will Gordon. Mark Hubbard worth a look along with Henrik Norlander.
A sample Mayakoba Golf Classic DraftKings GPP lineup
- Abraham Ancer – $9,900
- Russell Henley – $9,300
- Scott Piercy – $7,900
- Russell Knox – $7,700
- Byeong Hun An – $7,600
- Rory Sabbatini – $7,600