2020 Bermuda Championship model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 Bermuda Championship model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Bermuda Championship rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This is going to be a lottery ticket kind-of week. Our model loves guys you would expect to be up there based on odds and pricing, and there are some surprises, like Doug Ghim and Brian Stuard.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Zalatoris, Will 1.128 10900 2 1200 1
2 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.675 9100 10 3000 5
3 Varner III, Harold 0.657 10700 3 2500 3
4 Redman, Doc 0.438 10400 4 2500 3
5 Norlander, Henrik 0.374 8900 12 5000 17
6 Ghim, Doug 0.344 7100 42 8000 31
7 McCarthy, Denny 0.321 9500 7 3000 5
8 Tringale, Cameron 0.301 9200 9 4000 9
9 Schenk, Adam 0.288 8100 20 4000 9
10 McNealy, Maverick 0.228 8300 18 5000 17
11 Stallings, Scott 0.201 7800 24 6000 25
12 Hoffman, Charley 0.2 9700 6 3500 8
13 Stuard, Brian 0.194 7500 30 8000 31
14 Grillo, Emiliano 0.193 10100 5 3000 5
15 Perez, Pat 0.191 8000 21 5000 17
16 Seiffert, Chase 0.188 6600 63 12500 54
17 Malnati, Peter 0.183 9000 11 4000 9
18 Straka, Sepp 0.178 7600 28 5000 17
19 Suh, Justin 0.157 8700 14 4000 9
20 Percy, Cameron 0.156 7000 45 8000 31
21 Piercy, Scott 0.13 8500 16 5000 17
22 Merritt, Troy 0.126 7300 36 8000 31
23 Gordon, Will 0.109 6700 57 10000 45
24 Cink, Stewart 0.108 7900 22 5000 17
25 Sucher, Zack 0.104 6200 97 40000 102
26 Todd, Brendon 0.102 11100 1 1200 1
27 Ernst, Derek 0.07 6100 108 50000 105
28 Wise, Aaron 0.068 8600 15 4000 9
29 Uihlein, Peter 0.057 6400 78 15000 62
30 Baddeley, Aaron 0.041 6300 87 20000 78
31 Rodgers, Patrick 0.022 7900 22 5000 17
32 Vegas, Jhonattan 0.002 7500 30 8000 31
33 Martin, Ben -0.008 7000 45 10000 45
34 Hearn, David -0.016 6700 57 12500 54
35 Gomez, Fabian -0.027 6700 57 12500 54
36 Teater, Josh -0.037 6400 78 15000 62
37 Power, Seamus -0.04 6700 57 12500 54
38 Willett, Danny -0.041 8200 19 5000 17
39 Burgoon, Bronson -0.045 6600 63 15000 62
40 Garnett, Brice -0.048 7200 39 10000 45
41 Homa, Max -0.078 7200 39 10000 45
42 Sloan, Roger -0.081 6500 70 15000 62
43 Bryan, Wesley -0.084 7800 24 6000 25
44 Clark, Wyndham -0.107 7400 33 8000 31
45 Mitchell, Keith -0.111 6700 57 10000 45
46 Anderson, Mark -0.115 6400 78 25000 91
47 Watney, Nick -0.121 6900 48 15000 62
48 Harrington, Padraig -0.122 7700 26 8000 31
49 Bramlett, Joseph -0.123 7300 36 8000 31
50 List, Luke -0.133 8400 17 4000 9
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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