2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

That Sergio won last week, ranked 40th in our model, putting with his eyes closed is insane. Just goes to show that guys can show up and fix everything for one week, and there’s not a whole lot that can see it coming.

The ranking at the top absolutely makes sense, so hopefully we find some gems in the 20s and 30s.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.332 700 1 11800 1
2 Simpson, Webb 1.31 1200 2 11000 2
3 Finau, Tony 1.235 2000 4 10200 4
4 Cantlay, Patrick 1.097 1600 3 10400 3
5 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.02 2000 4 9900 5
6 Morikawa, Collin 0.972 2000 4 9800 6
7 English, Harris 0.911 3000 8 9700 7
8 Wolff, Matthew 0.892 2500 7 9600 8
9 Zalatoris, Will 0.83 6000 19 8300 21
10 Scheffler, Scottie 0.747 3000 8 9400 10
11 Na, Kevin 0.73 5000 17 8600 18
12 Snedeker, Brandt 0.708 12500 48 7300 39
13 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.69 10000 40 7100 46
14 Varner III, Harold 0.681 8000 26 7500 34
15 Garcia, Sergio 0.666 4000 15 9100 13
16 Ancer, Abraham 0.636 6000 19 8700 17
17 Henley, Russell 0.616 5000 17 8400 20
18 Casey, Paul 0.608 3500 11 9200 12
19 Kokrak, Jason 0.6 4000 15 8900 15
20 NeSmith, Matthew 0.586 20000 76 6600 75
21 Davis, Cameron 0.58 6000 19 8200 22
22 Fowler, Rickie 0.564 3500 11 9000 14
23 Redman, Doc 0.552 6000 19 7900 26
24 Harman, Brian 0.504 6000 19 8000 24
25 Im, Sungjae 0.495 3500 11 9300 11
26 Niemann, Joaquin 0.492 6000 19 8100 23
27 Perez, Pat 0.489 12500 48 7000 51
28 Smith, Cameron 0.475 8000 26 7800 28
29 Day, Jason 0.448 3000 8 9500 9
30 Dahmen, Joel 0.423 12500 48 7100 46
31 McCarthy, Denny 0.414 8000 26 7700 30
32 Schwartzel, Charl 0.411 15000 58 6800 62
33 Burns, Sam 0.41 8000 26 7400 36
34 Johnson, Zach 0.393 6000 19 8500 19
35 Oosthuizen, Louis 0.392 3500 11 8800 16
36 Streelman, Kevin 0.392 10000 40 7000 51
37 Norlander, Henrik 0.389 12500 48 6900 56
38 Grillo, Emiliano 0.381 10000 40 7300 39
39 Hoge, Tom 0.364 15000 58 6800 62
40 Hubbard, Mark 0.36 20000 76 6500 82
41 Hadwin, Adam 0.356 10000 40 7100 46
42 Reavie, Chez 0.349 8000 26 7300 39
43 An, Byeong Hun 0.347 12500 48 7100 46
44 Cink, Stewart 0.339 12500 48 7200 42
45 Schenk, Adam 0.337 15000 58 6900 56
46 Straka, Sepp 0.324 15000 58 6500 82
47 Daffue, MJ 0.31 25000 86 6000 121
48 Poston, J.T. 0.292 8000 26 7700 30
49 McNealy, Maverick 0.284 15000 58 6500 82
50 Ryder, Sam 0.27 25000 86 6200 105
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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