2020 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Featured Forebucks PGA Tour

2020 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]

To see our hidden picks and weekly model, join Forebucks!

For just $50 for 12 months or for free with a qualifying sportsbook deposit, Forebucks members get access to our winning weekly PGA Tour event model, in-depth DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends, as well exclusive members-only content.

You’ll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.

BECOME A MEMBER NOW

[/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]

How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week, with the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship, we are going to try an experimental change to the model. I’m changing the model — for one week only — to only include events in the strokes gained and Quality Strokes Gained that are considered weaker based on OWGR field strength ratings. Moving forward, I’m going to include components with all events and then separately events within certain ranges that are comparable to the field that week.

The top two players in the ranking are guys who don’t typically play PGA Tour events, but everything else kinda lines up.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Zalatoris, Will 0.8 10900 1 1200 1
2 Detry, Thomas 0.7 9400 10 3000 9
3 NeSmith, Matthew 0.491 7400 37 10000 40
4 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.475 9200 12 3500 11
5 Ryder, Sam 0.423 7200 44 8000 32
6 Wagner, Johnson 0.371 6400 90 25000 89
7 Taylor, Ben 0.339 6200 108 30000 95
8 Percy, Cameron 0.329 7400 37 50000 112
9 Burns, Sam 0.291 10100 4 1800 4
10 Conners, Corey 0.287 10600 2 1400 2
11 Kim, Michael 0.287 6100 118 100000 123
12 Perez, Pat 0.267 9100 13 4000 14
13 McCarthy, Denny 0.252 9600 8 40000 105
14 Hughes, Mackenzie 0.248 10300 3 1400 2
15 Schenk, Adam 0.241 8500 19 4000 14
16 Hoffman, Charley 0.226 8900 15 20000 74
17 Howell III, Charles 0.219 9700 7 4000 14
18 Burgoon, Bronson 0.214 7100 48 12500 49
19 Mitchell, Keith 0.202 7600 31 6000 26
20 Grillo, Emiliano 0.193 9800 6 2500 6
21 Norlander, Henrik 0.18 8600 18 4000 14
22 Seiffert, Chase 0.17 6700 69 10000 40
23 Stuard, Brian 0.149 8300 21 4000 14
24 Uihlein, Peter 0.134 7100 48 12500 49
25 Kim, Joohyung 0.132 8200 22 6000 26
26 Kirk, Chris 0.13 7400 37 12500 49
27 Gomez, Fabian 0.128 6700 69 15000 61
28 Sucher, Zack 0.128 6500 83 25000 89
29 Long, Adam 0.094 9900 5 2500 6
30 Hearn, David 0.093 6800 63 40000 105
31 Straka, Sepp 0.043 9300 11 3500 11
32 Power, Seamus 0.036 7500 34 8000 32
33 Grace, Branden 0.031 9000 14 4000 14
34 Zhang, Xinjun 0.03 8400 20 4000 14
35 Brown, Scott 0.029 6900 58 20000 74
36 Aphibarnrat, Kiradech 0.019 6600 76 15000 61
37 Sloan, Roger 0.013 7100 48 12500 49
38 Franco, Carlos 0 6000 131 100000 123
39 Vegas, Jhonattan -0.004 7700 29 5000 22
40 Rodgers, Patrick -0.005 8000 24 5000 22
41 Teater, Josh -0.008 6800 63 15000 61
42 Gordon, Will -0.024 7600 31 6000 26
43 Armour, Ryan -0.026 7100 48 12500 49
44 Ghim, Doug -0.041 7300 40 2500 6
45 Diaz, Roberto -0.055 6500 83 25000 89
46 Chappell, Kevin -0.058 7300 40 10000 40
47 Spaun, J.J. -0.063 7000 53 10000 40
48 Malnati, Peter -0.064 6800 63 15000 61
49 Pan, C.T. -0.075 7300 40 10000 40
50 Gellerman, Michael -0.081 6200 108 50000 112
[/s2If]

About the author

Avatar

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

Ryan occasionally links to merchants of his choosing, and GNN may earn a commission from sales generated by those links. See more in GNN's affiliate disclosure.

For all of our latest deals, see our GNN Deals site!