Each week, including this week’s 2020 US Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
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2020 US Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Kevin Kisner – 2 – T-3 Wyndham Championship, T-4 The Northern Trust
- Jason Kokrak – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2 – T-3 Wyndham Championship, T-6 The Northern Trust
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-10 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Jason Day – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- Matt Fitzpatrick – 2
- Tommy Fleetwood – 2
- Branden Grace – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Zach Johnson – 2
- Shane Lowry – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Louis Oosthuizen – 2
- Patrick Reed – 3
- Justin Rose – 2
- Adam Scott – 2
- Brandt Snedeker – 2
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Henrik Stenson – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
The modeling will attempt to pick players based on who has done well in the last five US Opens. But we have weather, course setup and course variability as a factor to consider here.
However, without strokes-gained broken out well by category, we would just be guessing.
This week’s model
2020 US Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I like DJ, Rahm, Xander and Collin.
We have 16 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. Berger, Fleetwood, Finau, Adam Scott, PReed and Fitz are my names here.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Harris English, Gary Woodland, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry are my favorite names. I could see Alex Noren and Cameron Champ if you’re feeling in a pinch.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Jason Kokrak, Will Zalatoris, Mark Hubbard, Ryan Palmer, Ryan Fox, Thomas Detry all worth a look.
My US Open DraftKings GPP lineup
- Jon Rahm – $11,000
- Xander Schauffele – $10,100
- Matt Fitzpatrick – $8,000
- Billy Horschel – $7,500
- Mark Hubbard – $6,700
- Will Zalatoris – $6,700