Each week, including this week’s 2020 Safeway Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 Safeway Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Si Woo Kim – 2 – T-13 PGA Championship, T-3 Wyndham Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-10 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played as a regular stroke-play event.
- Phil Mickelson – 2
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Harold Varner III – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Here’s how we break down Silverado:
Tee to Green: 71%
Off the Tee: 15%
Around the Green: 10%
Based on that modeling, here are some fits this week:
Harold Varner III
This week’s model
2020 Safeway Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I like Si Woo and kinda like Phil, but he and Steele are too expensive.
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. Reavie, Dahmen, Redman, HV3, Streelman and Will Gordon stand out.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Denny McCarthy, Mav McNealy, Cam Tringale, Wesley Bryan and Harry Higgs are names I like.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Stallings, Russell Knox, CT Pan are names I’d take a chance on here.
My Safeway Open DraftKings GPP lineup
- Doc Redman: $9,200
- Harold Varner III: $9,100
- Kevin Streelman: $9,000
- Denny McCarthy: $7,900
- Cameron Tringale: $7,500
- Wesley Bryan: $7,100