2020 Wyndham Championship model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 Wyndham Championship model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Wyndham Championship rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50 in this field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week we go back to regular PGA Tour stops, and the proper names are atop our model. Christian Bezuidenhout gets some extra love, and Mark Hubbard continues to be beloved in our tallies with good recent play.

Everything else should make sense.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Simpson, Webb 1.652 11200 2 900 1
2 Im, Sung-Jae 1.345 8800 11 3600 12
3 Koepka, Brooks 1.171 11400 1 1100 2
4 Rose, Justin 1.113 9900 6 1900 5
5 Reed, Patrick 1.093 10700 3 1700 4
6 Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 0.926 7700 24 9400 42
7 Fleetwood, Tommy 0.872 10500 4 1500 3
8 English, Harris 0.819 9300 7 2700 8
9 Hubbard, Mark 0.775 6700 69 15300 58
10 Horschel, Billy 0.738 9100 8 2400 7
11 Taylor, Ben 0.727 6000 134 41800 127
12 Seiffert, Chase 0.717 6400 93 20500 76
13 Casey, Paul 0.703 10300 5 1900 5
14 Henley, Russell 0.677 7700 24 5700 21
15 Snedeker, Brandt 0.669 8200 17 4700 15
16 Lowry, Shane 0.641 8700 12 3000 9
17 Furyk, Jim 0.611 7200 39 10400 46
18 Wallace, Matt 0.593 7400 32 8300 34
19 Cauley, Bud 0.592 7200 39 8300 34
20 Moore, Ryan 0.55 8100 18 5700 21
21 Niemann, Joaquin 0.539 7900 20 5200 19
22 Sabbatini, Rory 0.528 7500 30 7300 25
23 Garcia, Sergio 0.521 8500 14 4200 14
24 Harman, Brian 0.495 7100 44 7300 25
25 Spieth, Jordan 0.489 9000 9 3700 13
26 Reavie, Chez 0.48 8400 15 5200 19
27 Glover, Lucas 0.465 7300 35 8300 34
28 Norlander, Henrik 0.463 7300 35 8200 32
29 Conners, Corey 0.454 8000 19 4700 15
30 Griffin, Lanto 0.451 7400 32 8300 34
31 Kisner, Kevin 0.419 8300 16 5100 18
32 Rodgers, Patrick 0.377 7700 24 8200 32
33 Burns, Sam 0.373 7200 39 8300 34
34 Ryder, Sam 0.348 6700 69 20500 76
35 Davis, Cameron 0.333 7000 49 10400 46
36 Lee, Danny 0.326 6800 62 15600 64
37 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.313 6900 55 12400 55
38 Todd, Brendon 0.312 8900 10 3500 11
39 Kirk, Chris 0.3 7300 35 8300 34
40 Poston, J.T. 0.295 7800 22 4700 15
41 Straka, Sepp 0.281 7100 44 10400 46
42 Kokrak, Jason 0.249 6900 55 15300 58
43 Perez, Pat 0.245 6900 55 15600 64
44 Mccarthy, Denny 0.24 6900 55 10400 46
45 Munoz, Sebastian 0.237 6600 76 20500 76
46 Aphibarnrat, Kiradech 0.235 6400 93 20500 76
47 Ghim, Doug 0.217 6300 101 19300 75
48 Kim, Si-woo 0.2 8600 13 3200 10
49 Merritt, Troy 0.196 6800 62 15600 64
50 Hoge, Tom 0.184 6500 84 20500 76
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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