2020 the Memorial Tournament model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks PGA Tour

2020 the Memorial Tournament model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

To see our hidden picks and weekly model, join Forebucks!

For just $50 for 12 months (or $5 per month), Forebucks members get access to our winning weekly PGA Tour event model, in-depth DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends, as well exclusive members-only content.

You’ll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.

BECOME A MEMBER NOW

[/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]

How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Memorial Tournament rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50 in this field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week, the ranking again feels pretty apparent. We know who to like at this point. However, it was surprising to see Tiger at No. 15 in the ranking, though he’s hurt by not playing much.

Kevin Streelman again stands out here, as does Ian Poulter.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS ODDS ODDS RANK DK PRICE DK RANK
1 Cantlay, Patrick 2.087 1400 3 9800 6
2 McIlroy, Rory 2.05 1400 4 10700 3
3 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.907 1000 1 11100 1
4 Thomas, Justin 1.793 1200 2 10900 2
5 Simpson, Webb 1.644 2500 7 9600 7
6 Rahm, Jon 1.393 2000 6 9300 10
7 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.336 2500 7 9400 9
8 Johnson, Dustin 1.334 1800 5 10300 4
9 Woodland, Gary 1.298 4000 14 8600 17
10 Rose, Justin 1.277 5000 17 8900 14
11 Schauffele, Xander 1.265 2500 7 9200 11
12 Morikawa, Collin 1.167 2500 7 10000 5
13 Koepka, Brooks 1.154 2500 7 9100 12
14 Fowler, Rickie 1.144 4000 14 8800 15
15 Hovland, Viktor 1.131 2500 7 9500 8
16 Woods, Tiger 1.114 2500 7 9000 13
17 Berger, Daniel 1.09 4000 14 8700 16
18 Finau, Tony 0.999 6000 20 8300 20
19 Reed, Patrick 0.968 5000 17 8400 19
20 Poulter, Ian 0.838 8000 29 7600 31
21 Ancer, Abraham 0.822 5000 17 8500 18
22 Streelman, Kevin 0.82 6000 20 7600 31
23 Casey, Paul 0.796 6000 20 7900 25
24 Horschel, Billy 0.74 6000 20 7500 34
25 Niemann, Joaquin 0.739 6000 20 7900 25
26 Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 0.737 15000 46 6800 65
27 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 0.731 6000 20 8100 22
28 Na, Kevin 0.726 12500 38 7200 45
29 Homa, Max 0.706 15000 46 6800 65
30 Kuchar, Matt 0.706 6000 20 8000 23
31 McNealy, Maverick 0.685 20000 63 6800 65
32 Glover, Lucas 0.681 12500 38 7100 49
33 Im, Sungjae 0.67 6000 20 8200 21
34 Garcia, Sergio 0.659 8000 29 7800 27
35 Snedeker, Brandt 0.643 15000 46 6800 65
36 Sabbatini, Rory 0.639 12500 38 7500 34
37 Day, Jason 0.635 6000 20 8000 23
38 Hadwin, Adam 0.626 8000 29 7400 37
39 Wallace, Matt 0.595 15000 46 7000 54
40 van Rooyen, Erik 0.593 15000 46 7000 54
41 Lowry, Shane 0.56 12500 38 7200 45
42 NeSmith, Matthew 0.56 30000 93 6200 105
43 Spieth, Jordan 0.554 8000 29 7700 29
44 Taylor, Nick 0.546 20000 63 6900 59
45 English, Harris 0.542 12500 38 7300 41
46 Cauley, Bud 0.516 20000 63 6600 77
47 Varner III, Harold 0.495 15000 46 7100 49
48 Hubbard, Mark 0.472 20000 63 6700 71
49 Poston, J.T. 0.463 15000 46 7000 54
50 Scheffler, Scottie 0.448 12500 38 7200 45
[/s2If]

About the author

Avatar

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

Ryan occasionally links to merchants of his choosing, and GNN may earn a commission from sales generated by those links. See more in GNN's affiliate disclosure.

For all of our latest deals, see our GNN Deals site!