2020 The Genesis Invitational model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 The Genesis Invitational model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. I’ve spent the first few weeks of the year parsing through Alpha-phase rubrics, and now I’m ready to move to the Beta phase, which includes showing the results off to GNN Plus members each week.

I’m going to continue working on this rubric, and I hope to have it where I want it for the Masters. Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 The Genesis Invitational rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed each player in the field (may just do top 50 moving forward), as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

We’re looking for quality, of course, but also for some value. Patrick Cantlay provides some, as do Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama. I would look to discount Rafa and Furyk a little, as the model does take a long-term approach, and they have limited PGA Tour results compared to the others.

Collin Morkiawa is ranked high, but he doesn’t have a ton of Riviera experience, which is key here. In future weeks, I’ll likely try to make adjustments on course history on those courses where that means the most — and discount it at places, like TPC Sawgrass, where it seems to matter little at all.

Click header to sort

POS PLAYER ODDS DK PRICE
1 McIlroy, Rory 8/1 11600
2 Cantlay, Patrick 20/1 9800
3 Thomas, Justin 10/1 11000
4 Rahm, Jon 10/1 11200
5 Woods, Tiger 20/1 10400
6 Scott, Adam 30/1 9000
7 Finau, Tony 25/1 9100
8 Rose, Justin 35/1 8500
9 Matsuyama, Hideki 30/1 9300
10 Schauffele, Xander 20/1 9200
11 Cabrera Bello, Rafa 125/1 7300
12 Furyk, Jim 150/1 7000
13 DeChambeau, Bryson 50/1 7900
14 Morikawa, Collin 50/1 8100
15 Watson, Bubba 20/1 9600
16 Na, Kevin 60/1 7600
17 Koepka, Brooks 20/1 9400
18 Johnson, Dustin 12/1 10000
19 Day, Jason 35/1 8800
20 van Rooyen, Erik 150/1 7000
21 Reed, Patrick 40/1 8600
22 Spieth, Jordan 40/1 8400
23 Moore, Ryan 80/1 7600
24 Im, Sungjae 50/1 8000
25 Garcia, Sergio 50/1 7800
26 Holmes, J.B. 60/1 7700
27 Cauley, Bud 150/1 7000
28 Ancer, Abraham 60/1 8200
29 Casey, Paul 50/1 7900
30 Grillo, Emiliano 150/1 6900
31 Taylor, Nick 100/1 7200
32 Sabbatini, Rory 150/1 6900
33 Homa, Max 100/1 7500
34 Hadwin, Adam 100/1 7200
35 Howell III, Charles 80/1 7500
36 Niemann, Joaquin 60/1 7300
37 Leishman, Marc 40/1 8700
38 Kuchar, Matt 60/1 7800
39 Conners, Corey 100/1 7000
40 Ryder, Sam 300/1 6200
41 Piercy, Scott 125/1 7200
42 Poston, J.T. 125/1 6900
43 Lee, Danny 300/1 6400
44 Stricker, Steve 500/1 6100
45 Scheffler, Scottie 100/1 7400
46 Bradley, Keegan 100/1 7300
47 Kokrak, Jason 100/1 7100
48 Willett, Danny 150/1 7100
49 Smith, Cameron 100/1 7500
50 Dahmen, Joel 200/1 6500
51 Wolff, Matthew 125/1 7100
52 Putnam, Andrew 150/1 6800
53 Baddeley, Aaron 250/1 6300
54 Grace, Branden 80/1 7500
55 List, Luke 200/1 6600
56 Aphibarnrat, Kiradech 300/1 6400
57 Mickelson, Phil 50/1 8300
58 Griffin, Lanto 150/1 6800
59 Varner III, Harold 300/1 6200
60 Munoz, Sebastian 200/1 6500
61 Merritt, Troy 300/1 6200
62 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 80/1 7700
63 Harman, Brian 150/1 6900
64 Malnati, Peter 500/1 6300
65 Tway, Kevin 300/1 6200
66 Rodgers, Patrick 150/1 6800
67 Vegas, Jhonattan 250/1 6800
68 Perez, Pat 200/1 6500
69 Bramlett, Joseph 500/1 6100
70 Clark, Wyndham 200/1 6600
71 Watney, Nick 250/1 6600
72 Schenk, Adam 300/1 6400
73 Palmer, Ryan 100/1 7400
74 McCarthy, Denny 200/1 6600
75 Knox, Russell 125/1 7200
76 Tringale, Cameron 250/1 6500
77 Henley, Russell 300/1 6300
78 Burgoon, Bronson 300/1 6200
79 Stuard, Brian 300/1 6100
80 Lashley, Nate 200/1 6700
81 Noren, Alex 100/1 7300
82 Stallings, Scott 250/1 6400
83 Wise, Aaron 200/1 6700
84 Hoffman, Charley 200/1 6700
85 Reavie, Chez 125/1 7100
86 Pan, C.T. 300/1 6200
87 Burns, Sam 300/1 6200
88 Straka, Sepp 300/1 6100
89 Thompson, Michael 300/1 6400
90 Moon, Kyongjun 1000/1 6000
91 Stanley, Kyle 300/1 6400
92 Laird, Martin 250/1 6500
93 Kang, Sung 200/1 6700
94 Walker, Jimmy 250/1 6200
95 Ortiz, Carlos 150/1 6800
96 Molinari, Francesco 125/1 7000
97 Gooch, Talor 250/1 6300
98 Frittelli, Dylan 200/1 6700
99 Todd, Brendon 125/1 7400
100 Sloan, Roger 500/1 6000
101 Champ, Cameron 100/1 7400
102 Jones, Matt 150/1 6900
103 Hahn, James 300/1 6500
104 Long, Adam 250/1 6300
105 Dufner, Jason 300/1 6300
106 Landry, Andrew 250/1 6300
107 Chappell, Kevin 250/1 6300
108 Armour, Ryan 500/1 6000
109 Gay, Brian 300/1 6100
110 Taylor, Vaughn 150/1 6600
111 Lee, Kyoung-Hoon 500/1 6000
112 Spaun, J.J. 500/1 6000
113 Brown, Scott 500/1 6000
114 Duncan, Tyler 500/1 6100
115 Stroud, Chris 500/1 6000
116 Every, Matt 500/1 6100
117 Kim, Si Woo 300/1 6100
118 Herman, Jim 500/1 6000
119 Trainer, Martin 2000/1 6000
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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