Each week, including this week’s 2020 The Genesis Invitational , Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 The Genesis Invitational preview
The Genesis Invitational is the “elevated” version of the old Los Angeles Open. The Genesis Open was a 144-player affair, and the new invitational is down to 120 players with 60 percent of the world top 50 in play.
Riviera Country Club is a brilliant host for the event, and the course requires some level of experience to develop comfort and strategy. Don’t look at players who have never seen this event before or played at Riviera in competition.
2020 The Genesis Invitational DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Joel Dahmen – 2 – T-12 Sony Open, T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Tony Finau – 3 – T-14 The American Epress, T-6 Farmers Insurance Open, P-2 Phoenix Open
- Lanto Griffin – 2 – T-7 Sony Open, T-13 Tournament of Champions
- Max Homa – 3 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-6 Phoenix Open, T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Peter Malnati – 2 – T-12 Sony Open, T-11 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Jon Rahm – 2 – 2nd Farmers Insurance Open, T-9 Phoenix Open
- Bubba Watson – 2 – T-6 Farmers Insurance Open, 3rd Phoenix Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- James Hahn – 2
- JB Holmes – 2
- Charles Howell III – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 4
- Martin Laird – 3
- Marc Leishman – 2
- Hideki Matsuyama – 3
- Ryan Moore – 2
- Kevin Na – 2
- Xander Schauffele – 2
- Adam Scott – 3
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Justin Thomas – 2
- Bubba Watson – 4
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
This week, here’s the breakdown:
Tee to Green: 63%
Off the Tee: 16%
Around the Green: 15%
Fits could include:
2020 The Genesis Invitational DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think we look at JT and DJ here. Rory should do great, but he’s almost too expensive.
We have 16 players in this group, and this is where you really make your team. Patrick Cantlay is a green light, as is Bubba. Schauffele, Finau and Scott are yes for me. Leishman is a course fan and a winner this season. Phil is on his fifth-straight week, so he may be tired. Collin Morikawa is a rookie, but he should love here. Sungjae Im should be a great play, too.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Bryson should be a fit here, but his short game is in tatters. Fitzpatrick deserves a look. JB Holmes seems a must play. Love CH3 here and Max Homa. Cameron Smith should conceivably like here, and he’s undervalued. Alex Noren is a borderline fit. Jason Kokrak has one good finish here, but he’s struggling.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Corey Conners is dirt cheap. JT Poston has been cashing checks most of the year and playing pretty well. Joel Dahmen keeps making cash. Cam Tringale has a thing for Riviera. Not sure if Peter Malnati is a good fit, but he’s been playing well of late.
My The Genesis Invitational DraftKings lineup
- Bubba Watson – $9,600
- Tony Finau – $9,100
- Adam Scott – $9,000
- JB Holmes – $7,700
- Max Homa – $7,500
- Corey Conners – $7,000