Each week, including this week’s 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a return to the pro-am format we saw at The American Express, but with a more active component because of the celebrity and CEO players involved. Each pro-am team gets a crack at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course).
This week is so difficult to predict for a variety of reasons: the pro-am format can be draining; there’s only ShotLink data for one course; the draw can be meaningful; the conditions are difficult so worse players can win — or at least contend.
2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Lanto Griffin – 2 – T-7 Sony Open, T-13 Tournament of Champions
- Tom Hoge – 3 – T-12 Sony Open, T-6 The American Express, T-5 Farmers Insurance Open
- Max Homa – 2 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-6 Phoenix Open
- Kevin Kisner – 2 – T-4 Sony Open, T-14 Tournament of Champions
- Brandt Snedeker – 2 – T-12 Sony Open, T-3 Farmers Insurance Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Paul Casey – 2
- Jason Day – 5
- Jim Furyk – 2
- Brian Gay – 2
- Lucas Glover – 2
- JB Holmes – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Matt Jones – 2
- Russell Knox – 2
- Phil Mickelson – 3
- Pat Perez – 2
- Brandt Snedeker – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Scott Stallings – 3
- Kevin Streelman- 3
- Vaughn Taylor – 2
- Jimmy Walker – 2
- Nick Watney – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Since we are in a (final) multi-course tournament, the Course Fit concept really doesn’t apply.
ANNOUNCEMENT! We have improved the Course Fit tool to only show players in this week’s field.
2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think all of the players are a bit suspect for various reasons. However, I’m most apt to pick Casey and Sneds at this price range.
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where you really make your team. Kuchar and Fitzpatrick are interesting plays, but they’re perhaps too expensive. Mickelson has a great track record here, but is one good week in Saudi Arabia indicative of a turnaround? G-Mac loves here, but he’s coming from winning in Saudi Arabia. Viktor Hovland seems a great play. Alex Noren likes here. Russell Knox is solid and has a good course history. Max Homa is playing great golf. Adam Hadwin is doing well, too.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Jim Furyk is playing well. Scott Stallings is making cuts and has a good course history. Adam Long and Maverick McNealy could be sneaky good this week. Harry Higgs loves to entertain, and he’s playing better. Mark Hubbard likes Pebble, and Joel Dahmen is a solid guy here. JB Holmes is playing well on courses he traditionally likes.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Matt Jones is worth a look. Brian Gay has a good history here. Doc Redman and Sebastian Cappelen are solid values, too.
My AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DraftKings lineup
- Viktor Hovland – $9,100
- Russell Knox – $8,600
- Max Homa – $8,300
- JB Holmes – $7,900
- Scott Stallings – $7,600
- Maverick McNealy – $7,300